Table 3 Measures indicating the size of the task of eliminating measles in the Italian regions. Estimates for basic reproduction numbers (R 0) and critical age zero routine vaccination coverages (p c ) for measles elimination in the Italian regions. Results in column pairs correspond to different assumptions on contact patterns. (NA = contact matrix non admissible; * = contact matrix admissible only after FOI redefined on adult age group; N = North, C = Centre, S = South.)
Type of mixing pattern | Homogeneous | Default | Realistic assortative | Proportionate | Preferred mixing ε= 0.9) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R0 | PC age 0 | R0 | Pcage 0 | R0 | Pc age 0 | R0 | Pc age 0 | R0 | Pc age 0 | |
Piemonte & Valle D'Aosta (N) | 11.83 | 0,92 | NA | NA | 11.8* | 0.92 | 4.09 | 0.76 | 4.30 | 0.77 |
Lombardia (N) | 13.16 | 0,92 | 6.2 | 0.84 | 16.1* | 0.94 | 4.80 | 0.79 | 5.18 | 0.81 |
Trentino (N) | 13.05 | 0,92 | 5.4 | 0.81 | 16.0* | 0.94 | 4.50 | 0.78 | 4.82 | 0.79 |
Veneto (N) | 12.77 | 0.92 | 5.5 | 0.82 | 17.6* | 0.94 | 4.77 | 0.79 | 5.13 | 0.81 |
Friuli V.G. (N) | 12.53 | 0.92 | 4.9 | 0.80 | 13.1* | 0.92 | 4.05 | 0.75 | 4.32 | 0.77 |
Liguria (N) | 10.83 | 0.91 | NA | NA | 10.0* | 0.90 | 3.73 | 0.73 | 3.95 | 0.75 |
Emilia (N) | 12.01 | 0.92 | NA | NA | 17.5* | 0.94 | 4.41 | 0.77 | 4.69 | 0.79 |
Toscana (C) | 10.27 | 0.90 | NA | NA | 9.8* | 0.90 | 3.60 | 0.72 | 3.79 | 0.74 |
Umbria (C) | 11.01 | 0.91 | NA | NA | 8.5* | 0.88 | 3.62 | 0.72 | 3.81 | 0.74 |
Marche (C) | 11.32 | 0.91 | NA | NA | 10.6* | 0.91 | 3.83 | 0.74 | 4.06 | 0.75 |
Lazio (C) | 11.83 | 0.92 | NA | NA | 11.8* | 0.92 | 4.06 | 0.75 | 4.27 | 0.77 |
Abruzzo (S) | 11.60 | 0.91 | NA | NA | 14.6* | 0.93 | 4.64 | 0.78 | 5.07 | 0.80 |
Molise (S) | 12.11 | 0.92 | NA | NA | 13.2* | 0.92 | 5.68 | 0.82 | 6.62 | 0.85 |
Campania (S) | 13.30 | 0.92 | 7.5 | 0.87 | 16.3 | 0.94 | 5.91 | 0.83 | 6.89 | 0.85 |
Puglia (S) | 14.43 | 0.93 | 7.80 | 0.87 | 20.1 | 0.95 | 6.01 | 0.83 | 7.14 | 0.86 |
Basilicata (S) | 13.82 | 0.93 | 6.7 | 0.85 | 19.8 | 0.95 | 5.19 | 0.81 | 5.86 | 0.83 |
Calabria (S) | 13.32 | 0.92 | 6.1 | 0.84 | 18.5 | 0.95 | 5.07 | 0.80 | 5.62 | 0.82 |
Sicilia (S) | 13.71 | 0.93 | 7.5 | 0.87 | 16.6 | 0.94 | 5.91 | 0.83 | 6.98 | 0.86 |
Sardegna (S) | 13.17 | 0.92 | 6.3 | 0.84 | 16.6 | 0.94 | 5.29 | 0.81 | 5.93 | 0.83 |
North | 12.32 | 0.92 | 5.2 | 0.81 | 14.9* | 0.93 | 4.38 | 0.77 | 4.66 | 0.79 |
Centre | 11.05 | 0.91 | NA | NA | 10.4* | 0.90 | 3.76 | 0.73 | 3.96 | 0.75 |
South | 13.27 | 0.92 | 6.6 | 0.85 | 16.4 | 0.94 | 5.45 | 0.82 | 6.19 | 0.84 |
Italia | 12.14 | 0.92 | 5.2 | 0.81 | 13.2* | 0.92 | 4.33 | 0.77 | 4.64 | 0.78 |
Italy-UR | 12.93 | 0.92 | 6.0 | 0.83 | 14.3 | 0.93 | 5.04 | 0.80 | 5.57 | 0.82 |
EURO | 17.05 | 0.94 | 9.6 | 0.90 | 29.3 | 0.97 | 7.14 | 0.86 | 8.95 | 0.89 |