Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

Table 1 Mortality attributable to excess adiposity: deaths, YLL, PYLL75 and loss of life expectancy – total population, males and females, England and Wales, 2003 and 2015.

	2003	2015 – composition of mortality risks same as in 2003–05			2015 – composition of mortality risks from WHO prediction for high-income countries
		No change in BMI	BMI increase 30% below recent trend	BMI increase continues recent trend	No change in BMI	BMI increase 30% below recent trend	BMI increase continues recent trend
Total population
Attributable deaths	40,874	40,613	44,914	46,540	46,703	51,140	52,798
Years of life lost (YLL*)	261,153	254,862	275,618	283,591	280,594	300,364	307,941
YLL* per attributable death	6.39	6.28	6.14	6.09	6.01	5.87	5.83
PYLL75	134,805	136,866	147,023	150,615	145,220	154,202	157,337
Attributable loss of life expectancy (years)	1.05	1.04	1.13	1.16	1.16	1.25	1.28
Males
Attributable deaths	21,250	20,072	22,869	23,897	22,133	24,937	25,944
Years of life lost (YLL*)	155,519	144,071	158,015	163,318	146,431	159,155	163,949
YLL* per attributable death	7.32	7.18	6.91	6.83	6.62	6.38	6.32
PYLL75	92,008	87,223	94,655	97,386	84,761	91,159	163,949
Attributable loss of life expectancy (years)	1.19	1.12	1.24	1.28	1.18	1.30	1.34
Females
Attributable deaths	19,625	20,541	22,044	22,643	24,570	26,203	26,854
Years of life lost (YLL*)	105,634	110,791	117,603	120,273	134,163	141,209	143,992
YLL* per attributable death	5.38	5.39	5.33	5.31	5.46	5.39	5.36
PYLL75	42,797	49,642	52,369	53,229	60,459	63,043	63,839
Attributable loss of life expectancy (years)	0.92	0.96	1.02	1.04	1.14	1.20	1.23

* YLL weights use GBD reference life tables, 3% discounting and age-weighting.
All cause mortality levels in 2015 from Government Actuary's predictions, with composition of mortality risks assumed constant or as predicted by WHO for high-income countries.

ISSN: 1478-7954