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Table 1 Projections of cumulative diabetes incidence, diabetes prevalence, and diabetes prevalence rates through 2030 among US adults, by type of diabetes intervention strategy*

From: Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010–2030

Intervention strategy 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change (2007 to 2030) Relative attenuation (%)
None
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) 2.3 6.8 17.9 29.1 40.3 51.7   
Diabetes prevalence (millions) 27.8 33.1 41.2 48.7 55.3 60.7 32.9 ---
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) 12.9 14.8 17.5 19.7 21.5 22.7 9.8 ---
High-risk strategy (lifestyle intervention for adults with IFG and IGT)
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) 2.2 6.5 17.3 28.1 39.0 50.1   
Diabetes prevalence (millions) 27.8 32.8 40.6 47.9 54.2 59.5 31.7 −3.6
Diabetes prevalence (%) 12.9 14.7 17.2 19.3 21.0 22.2 9.3 −5.1
Moderate-risk strategy (lifestyle intervention for adults with IFG)
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) 2.1 6.2 16.4 26.7 37.1 47.7   
Diabetes prevalence (millions) 27.8 32.5 39.8 46.6 52.6 57.6 29.8 −9.4
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) 12.9 14.5 16.9 18.8 20.3 21.5 8.6 −12.2
Population strategy (risk reduction policies targeting entire population)
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) 2.2 6.7 17.6 28.5 39.6 50.8   
Diabetes prevalence (millions) 27.8 33.0 40.9 48.2 54.7 60.0 32.2 −2.1
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) 12.9 14.7 17.3 19.5 21.2 22.4 9.5 −3.1
Combination of moderate-risk and population strategies
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) 2.0 6.1 16.1 26.3 36.7 47.1   
Diabetes prevalence (millions) 27.8 32.4 39.6 46.3 52.2 57.1 29.3 −10.9
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) 12.9 14.5 16.8 18.7 20.2 21.3 8.4 −14.3
  1. *The high-risk strategies are assumed to result in a net 12.5% reduction in diabetes incidence in the 8.3% of the population who have both IFG and IGT. The moderate-risk strategy is assumed to result in a 12.5% reduction in the 26.7% of the population who have either IFG or IGT. The population strategy is assumed to result in a net 2% reduction in diabetes incidence in the entire population. The combined strategy results in a 12.5% reduction in those with IFG or IGT and a 2% reduced incidence in diabetes in the rest of the population.