Table 1 Projections of cumulative diabetes incidence, diabetes prevalence, and diabetes prevalence rates through 2030 among US adults, by type of diabetes intervention strategy*
Intervention strategy | 2007 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | Change (2007 to 2030) | Relative attenuation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
None | ||||||||
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) | 2.3 | 6.8 | 17.9 | 29.1 | 40.3 | 51.7 | ||
Diabetes prevalence (millions) | 27.8 | 33.1 | 41.2 | 48.7 | 55.3 | 60.7 | 32.9 | --- |
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) | 12.9 | 14.8 | 17.5 | 19.7 | 21.5 | 22.7 | 9.8 | --- |
High-risk strategy (lifestyle intervention for adults with IFG and IGT) | ||||||||
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) | 2.2 | 6.5 | 17.3 | 28.1 | 39.0 | 50.1 | ||
Diabetes prevalence (millions) | 27.8 | 32.8 | 40.6 | 47.9 | 54.2 | 59.5 | 31.7 | −3.6 |
Diabetes prevalence (%) | 12.9 | 14.7 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 21.0 | 22.2 | 9.3 | −5.1 |
Moderate-risk strategy (lifestyle intervention for adults with IFG) | ||||||||
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) | 2.1 | 6.2 | 16.4 | 26.7 | 37.1 | 47.7 | ||
Diabetes prevalence (millions) | 27.8 | 32.5 | 39.8 | 46.6 | 52.6 | 57.6 | 29.8 | −9.4 |
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) | 12.9 | 14.5 | 16.9 | 18.8 | 20.3 | 21.5 | 8.6 | −12.2 |
Population strategy (risk reduction policies targeting entire population) | ||||||||
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) | 2.2 | 6.7 | 17.6 | 28.5 | 39.6 | 50.8 | ||
Diabetes prevalence (millions) | 27.8 | 33.0 | 40.9 | 48.2 | 54.7 | 60.0 | 32.2 | −2.1 |
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) | 12.9 | 14.7 | 17.3 | 19.5 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 9.5 | −3.1 |
Combination of moderate-risk and population strategies | ||||||||
Cumulative diabetes incidence (millions) | 2.0 | 6.1 | 16.1 | 26.3 | 36.7 | 47.1 | ||
Diabetes prevalence (millions) | 27.8 | 32.4 | 39.6 | 46.3 | 52.2 | 57.1 | 29.3 | −10.9 |
Diabetes prevalence rate (%) | 12.9 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 21.3 | 8.4 | −14.3 |