Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010–2030

Table 2 Results of one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analyses showing effects of changes in two base case assumptions on the projected reduction in diabetes prevalence among US adults in 2030 following implementation of four diabetes prevention strategies

Assumptions	Projected reduction in diabetes prevalence compared to no intervention
Assumptions	Moderate-risk [millions]	High-risk [millions]	Population [millions]	Combined [millions]
Base case assumptions:
Flat background diabetes incidence rate*	1.2 [3.1]	0.5 [1.2]	0.3 [0.7]	1.4 [3.6]
Lifestyle intervention will reduce yearly diabetes incidence rate by 12.5% in target population
Population-wide intervention will reduce the yearly diabetes incidence rate by 2% among all US adults
Adjustments to base case assumptions
Increasing background incidence rate*	1.4 [3.7]	0.5 [1.4]	0.3 [0.8]	1.6 [4.2]
Lifestyle intervention will reduce yearly diabetes incidence rate by 25% in target population	2.5 [6.4]	1.0 [2.6]	0.3 [0.7]	2.7 [6.9]
Lifestyle intervention will reduce yearly diabetes incidence rate by 6.25% in target population	0.6 [1.5]	0.3 [0.6]	0.3 [0.7]	0.8 [2.0]
Population-wide intervention will reduce yearly diabetes incidence rate by 1% among all US adults	1.2 [3.1]	0.5 [1.2]	0.2 [0.3]	1.1 [2.8]
Population-wide intervention will reduce yearly diabetes incidence rate by 4% among all US adults	1.2 [3.1]	0.5 [1.2]	0.6 [1.4]	1.6 [4.0]

*Flat background diabetes incidence estimated at 1.22% per year. Increasing background diabetes incidence rate estimated based on the middle incidence projection from Boyle et al., wherein incidence increases by 75% between 2007 and 2050.

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