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Figure 5 | Population Health Metrics

Figure 5

From: The pre-vaccination regional epidemiological landscape of measles in Italy: contact patterns, effort needed for eradication, and comparison with other regions of Europe

Figure 5

Observed (ESEN) vs predicted measles immunity profiles. The serological profile from the ESEN survey is compared with model projections assuming the EURO force of infection of Edmunds et al [8] or the FOI estimated from Italian pre-vaccination case notifications but corrected for under-reporting (UR). In each case one of two assumptions is made: i) that the process of population ageing predicted for Italy has no effect upon transmission (D1) or ii) that low fertility and population ageing could lead to significant decline in transmission (D2).

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Population Health Metrics

ISSN: 1478-7954