Variables †| Before Calibration | Calibration Results | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
 |  | Parameter Ranges | ||
 | Parameter Inputs | Parameter Multiplier Search Ranges | Minimum | Maximum |
Progression | Â | Â | Â | Â |
From Normal to HPV Infection ‡ |  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 0.1 – 34.5 | 1.0 – 4.0 | 0.2 | 137.3 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 0.1 – 23.4 | 1.0 – 8.0 §§ | 0.5 | 188.6 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 0.0 – 13.8 | 1.0 – 8.0 §§ | 0.0 | 110.1 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 1.2 – 114.5 | 1.0 – 8.0 | 1.5 | 937.3 |
From HPV Infection to CIN1 § |  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 55.8 – 64.7 | 0.1 – 6.0 | 51.7 | 377.5 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 57.5 – 102.3 | 0.1 – 6.0 | 13.2 | 621.0 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 57.5 – 102.3 | 0.1 – 6.0 | 14.8 | 595.7 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 57.5 – 102.3 | 0.1 – 6.0 | 27.3 | 615.7 |
From HPV Infection to CIN2,3 ¶ |  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 0.4 – 9.3 | 0.0 – 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.1 – 1.0 | 0.3 | 46.6 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.0 – 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.4 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.0 – 0.1 | 0.0 | 4.6 |
From CIN1 to CIN2,3 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 0.4 – 9.3 | 0.5 – 4.0 | 0.3 | 37.0 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.5 – 6.0 | 1.2 | 282.4 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.1 – 4.0 | 0.8 | 185.1 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 2.2 – 46.7 | 0.1 – 4.0 | 0.4 | 115.1 |
From CIN2,3 to Local Cancer || | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 0.0 |  | 0.0 | 0.0 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 0.6 – 72.2 | 1.0 – 5.0 | 1.1 | 362.0 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 0.6 – 72.2 | 1.0 – 5.0 | 0.8 | 362.3 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 0.6 – 72.2 | 1.0 – 3.0 | 0.7 | 216.1 |
Progression within Cancer | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - Local Cancer to Regional Cancer | 242.4 |  | 242.4 | 242.4 |
   - Regional Cancer to Distant Cancer | 303.8 |  | 303.8 | 303.8 |
Regression | Â | Â | Â | Â |
From CIN2,3 to Normal ** | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 11.8 – 42.4 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 6.4 | 201.3 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 11.8 – 42.4 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 6.5 | 197.8 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 11.8 – 42.4 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 6.5 | 212.0 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 11.8 – 42.4 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 6.3 | 213.2 |
From CIN1 to Normal ††|  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 371.7 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 229.8 | 1968.9 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 371.7 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 193.2 | 1948.8 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 371.7 | 0.5 – 5.0 §§ | 193.2 | 1948.8 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 371.7 | 0.5 – 5.0 | 310.3 | 1974.0 |
From HPV Infection to Normal ††|  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 371.7 | 1.5 – 6.0 | 1,114.2 | 2415 |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 371.7 | 1.5 – 6.0 | 589.7 | 2324.4 |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 371.7 | 1.5 – 6.0 §§ | 589.7 | 2324.4 |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 371.7 | 1.5 – 6.0 | 778.1 | 2355.7 |
Cancer detected by symptoms | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - Local Cancer | 210.6 |  | 210.6 | 210.6 |
   - Regional Cancer | 916.1 |  | 916.1 | 916.1 |
   - Distant Cancer | 2302.6 |  | 2302.6 | 2302.6 |
Mortality | Â | Â | Â | Â |
   - All Cause | 0.1 – 297.1 |  | 0.1 | 297.1 |
   - Local Cancer | 19.2 |  | 19.2 | 19.2 |
   - Regional Cancer | 140.0 |  | 140.0 | 140.0 |
   - Distant Cancer | 489.9 |  | 489.9 | 489.9 |
Natural Immunity ‡‡ |  |  |  |  |
   - Low-Risk HPV | 0% |  | 0% | 0% |
   - Other High-Risk HPV | 100% | 0.0 – 1.0 | 4% | 90% |
   - High-Risk HPV-16 | 100% | 0.0 – 1.0 §§ | 40% | 99% |
   - High-Risk HPV-18 | 100% | 0.0 – 1.0 §§ | 26% | 100% |