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Table 1 Projections from the Three-State Model of Numbers of People in Millions with No Diabetes, Undiagnosed Diabetes, and Diagnosed Diabetes for Selected Years

From: Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Year Relative Risk r1 Relative Risk r2 No Diabetes (Low, Middle) Undiagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle) Diagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle) Total US Adult Population
2010 1.77 2.11 (191.4, 191.2) (12.0, 11.5) (20.3, 21.0) 223.7
  1.00 4.08 (192.1, 191.9) (12.1, 11.6) (19.5, 20.2)  
2015 1.77 2.11 (196.1, 194.6) (13.1, 12.2) (26.6, 29.1) 235.9
  1.00 4.08 (198.1, 196.6) (13.3, 12.4) (24.4, 26.8)  
2020 1.77 2.11 (200.7, 196.9) (13.9, 12.7) (32.9, 37.9) 247.5
  1.00 4.08 (204.0, 200.3) (14.3, 13.0) (29.2, 34.1)  
2025 1.77 2.11 (205.4, 198.5) (14.4, 13.0) (38.7, 47.0) 258.5
  1.00 4.08 (210.2, 203.6) (14.9, 13.5) (33.4, 41.4)  
2030 1.77 2.11 (209.5, 199.3) (14.7, 13.1) (43.7, 55.5) 267.9
  1.00 4.08 (216.0, 206.2) (15.4, 13.7) (36.5, 48.0)  
2035 1.77 2.11 (213.9, 200.1) (15.0, 13.2) (48.1, 63.6) 276.9
  1.00 4.08 (222.1, 208.9) (15.8, 14.0) (39.1, 54.1)  
2040 1.77 2.11 (218.3, 201.0) (15.2, 13.3) (52.0, 71.2) 285.5
  1.00 4.08 (228.2, 211.6) (16.2, 14.2) (41.1, 59.7)  
2045 1.77 2.11 (223.6, 202.7) (15.5, 13.4) (55.6, 78.6) 292.9
  1.00 4.08 (235.1, 215.0) (16.6, 14.4) (43.1, 65.4)  
2050 1.77 2.11 (230.6, 206.0) (16.0, 13.7) (59.7, 86.6) 306.3
  1.00 4.08 (243.5, 219.7) (17.2, 14.8) (45.6, 71.8)  
  1. Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08. Entries in the last column are the Census projections of the total US adult population.