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Table 2 Projections for Selected Years of Incident Cases in Thousands from the Adult Population with No Diabetes from the No-Intervention Model (Three-State Model) and the Preventive Intervention Model (Five-State Model)

From: Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Year Relative Relative No-Intervention Intervention Difference (Low, Middle)
  Risk r1 Risk r2 Incident Cases (Low, Middle) Incident Cases (Low, Middle)  
2010 1.77 2.11 (2018.4, 2145.7) (1681.6, 1787.9) (336.8, 357.8)
  1.00 4.08 (2021.1, 2148.4) (1683.8, 1790.1) (337.3, 358.3)
2015 1.77 2.11 (2095.4, 2468.1) (1773.2, 2093.2) (322.2, 374.9)
  1.00 4.08 (2106.8, 2481.9) (1782.7, 2104.9) (324.1, 377.0)
2020 1.77 2.11 (2143.3, 2721.9) (1833.3, 2341.0) (310.0, 380.9)
  1.00 4.08 (2164.9, 2752.2) (1851.7, 2366.9) (313.2, 385.3)
2025 1.77 2.11 (2176.1, 2933.5) (1875.8, 2551.9) (300.3, 381.6)
  1.00 4.08 (2208.9, 2984.9) (1904.1, 2596.6) (304.8, 388.3)
2030 1.77 2.11 (2230.0, 3098.4) (1933.6, 2721.5) (296.4, 376.9)
  1.00 4.08 (2276.0, 3175.1) (1973.5, 2789.1) (302.5, 386.0)
2035 1.77 2.11 (2300.8, 3225.0) (2004.4, 2855.9) (296.4, 369.1)
  1.00 4.08 (2361.4, 3329.7) (2057.3, 2949.2) (304.1, 380.5)
2040 1.77 2.11 (2334.3, 3323.2) (2041.4, 2963.2) (292.9, 360.0)
  1.00 4.08 (2408.8, 3456.9) (2107.0, 3083.6) (301.8, 373.3)
2045 1.77 2.11 (2341.5, 3401.4) (2054.0, 3050.5) (287.5, 350.9)
  1.00 4.08 (2428.3, 3562.9) (2130.6, 3197.3) (297.7, 365.6)
2050 1.77 2.11 (2403.8, 3490.9) (2113.8, 3146.1) (290.0, 344.8)
  1.00 4.08 (2502.6, 3677.2) (2201.7, 3316.8) (302.9, 360.4)
  1. Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08.