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Table 3 Jumps in the log mortality rate time series for the 13 selected causes of death from 1970 to 2006 identified by the Polydect method

From: Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Country Underlying cause of death Year of the jump Multiplicative factor1 Data producer confirmation Proposed jump cause2
England and Wales Cerebrovascular disease 2001 1.24 Yes ICD-10
  Conditions originating in the perinatal period 1986 0.09 No answer No
  Conditions originating in the perinatal period 2001 2.78 Yes ACS
  Heart failure 1979 3.59 Yes ICD-9
  Heart failure 1984 0.74 Yes No
  Heart failure 1993 1.61 Yes ACS
  Renal failure 1979 2.90 Yes ICD-9
  Renal failure 1993 2.33 Yes ACS
  Rheumatic heart disease 1979 0.63 Yes ICD-9
  Rheumatic heart disease 2001 0.77 Yes ICD-10
France Heart failure 1979 1.99 Yes ICD-9
  Hypertension 1979 0.71 Yes ICD-9
  Hypertension 1998 1.26 Yes Death certificate
  Malignant colorectal neoplasm 1979 0.92 Yes ICD-9
  Malignant colorectal neoplasm 2000 0.94 No ICD-10
  Peptic ulcer 1979 0.74 Yes ICD-9
  Peptic ulcer 2000 0.63 Yes ICD-10
  Rheumatic heart disease 1979 0.36 Yes ICD-9
  Rheumatic heart disease 2000 1.54 Yes ICD-10
East Germany Cerebrovascular disease 1991 1.45 Yes Reunion
  Conditions originating in the perinatal period 1991 0.46 Yes Reunion
  Heart failure 1990 1.85 Yes Reunion
  Heart failure 1991 0.52 Yes Reunion
  Hypertension 1991 0.51 Yes Reunion
  Ischemic heart disease 1991 1.43 Yes Reunion
  Malignant colorectal neoplasm 1991 1.21 Yes Reunion
  Rheumatic heart disease 1998 1.14 Yes ICD-10
West Germany Heart failure 1979 1.65 Yes IC-D9
  Hodgkin's disease 1994 0.59 No No
  Ischemic heart disease 1979 0.87 Yes ICD-9
  Rheumatic heart disease 1979 0.51 Yes ICD-9
Netherlands Heart failure 1979 1.54 Yes ICD-9
  Heart failure 1996 0.76 No answer ICD-10
  Hypertension 1980 0.65 Yes No
  Renal failure 1979 0.75 No answer ICD-9
  Rheumatic heart disease 1992 5.40 No answer No
  Rheumatic heart disease 1996 0.13 No answer ICD-10
Spain Conditions originating in the perinatal period 1975 2.94 Yes Definition change
  Heart failure 1980 1.41 Yes ICD-9
  Ischemic heart disease 1980 0.93 Yes ICD-9
  Malignant colorectal neoplasm 1980 0.78 Yes ICD-9
  Renal failure 1980 1.73 Yes ICD-9
Sweden Heart failure 1987 5.55 Yes ICD-9
  Malignant neoplasm of testes 1974 1.33 Yes No
  Malignant neoplasm of testes 1979 0.74 Yes No
  Renal failure 1987 0.69 Yes ICD-9
  Renal failure 1997 1.23 Yes ICD-10
  Rheumatic heart disease 1982 0.08 Yes Coding change
  Rheumatic heart disease 1987 15.33 Yes ICD-9
  1. 1: multiplicative factor of the mortality rate between the period before and after the detected jump
  2. 2: new coding, implementation of which may have caused the jump