Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Rey, Grégoire; Aouba, Albertine; Pavillon, Gérard; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Plug, Iris; Westerling, Ragnar; Jougla, Eric; Mackenbach, Johan

doi:10.1186/1478-7954-9-52

Population Health Metrics

Table 3 Jumps in the log mortality rate time series for the 13 selected causes of death from 1970 to 2006 identified by the Polydect method

From: Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Country	Underlying cause of death	Year of the jump	Multiplicative factor¹	Data producer confirmation	Proposed jump cause²
England and Wales	Cerebrovascular disease	2001	1.24	Yes	ICD-10
	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1986	0.09	No answer	No
	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	2001	2.78	Yes	ACS
	Heart failure	1979	3.59	Yes	ICD-9
	Heart failure	1984	0.74	Yes	No
	Heart failure	1993	1.61	Yes	ACS
	Renal failure	1979	2.90	Yes	ICD-9
	Renal failure	1993	2.33	Yes	ACS
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	0.63	Yes	ICD-9
	Rheumatic heart disease	2001	0.77	Yes	ICD-10
France	Heart failure	1979	1.99	Yes	ICD-9
	Hypertension	1979	0.71	Yes	ICD-9
	Hypertension	1998	1.26	Yes	Death certificate
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1979	0.92	Yes	ICD-9
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	2000	0.94	No	ICD-10
	Peptic ulcer	1979	0.74	Yes	ICD-9
	Peptic ulcer	2000	0.63	Yes	ICD-10
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	0.36	Yes	ICD-9
	Rheumatic heart disease	2000	1.54	Yes	ICD-10
East Germany	Cerebrovascular disease	1991	1.45	Yes	Reunion
	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1991	0.46	Yes	Reunion
	Heart failure	1990	1.85	Yes	Reunion
	Heart failure	1991	0.52	Yes	Reunion
	Hypertension	1991	0.51	Yes	Reunion
	Ischemic heart disease	1991	1.43	Yes	Reunion
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1991	1.21	Yes	Reunion
	Rheumatic heart disease	1998	1.14	Yes	ICD-10
West Germany	Heart failure	1979	1.65	Yes	IC-D9
	Hodgkin's disease	1994	0.59	No	No
	Ischemic heart disease	1979	0.87	Yes	ICD-9
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	0.51	Yes	ICD-9
Netherlands	Heart failure	1979	1.54	Yes	ICD-9
	Heart failure	1996	0.76	No answer	ICD-10
	Hypertension	1980	0.65	Yes	No
	Renal failure	1979	0.75	No answer	ICD-9
	Rheumatic heart disease	1992	5.40	No answer	No
	Rheumatic heart disease	1996	0.13	No answer	ICD-10
Spain	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1975	2.94	Yes	Definition change
	Heart failure	1980	1.41	Yes	ICD-9
	Ischemic heart disease	1980	0.93	Yes	ICD-9
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1980	0.78	Yes	ICD-9
	Renal failure	1980	1.73	Yes	ICD-9
Sweden	Heart failure	1987	5.55	Yes	ICD-9
	Malignant neoplasm of testes	1974	1.33	Yes	No
	Malignant neoplasm of testes	1979	0.74	Yes	No
	Renal failure	1987	0.69	Yes	ICD-9
	Renal failure	1997	1.23	Yes	ICD-10
	Rheumatic heart disease	1982	0.08	Yes	Coding change
	Rheumatic heart disease	1987	15.33	Yes	ICD-9

¹: multiplicative factor of the mortality rate between the period before and after the detected jump
²: new coding, implementation of which may have caused the jump

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ISSN: 1478-7954

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