Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Rey, Grégoire; Aouba, Albertine; Pavillon, Gérard; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Plug, Iris; Westerling, Ragnar; Jougla, Eric; Mackenbach, Johan

doi:10.1186/1478-7954-9-52

Population Health Metrics

Table 5 Multiplicative factor by age and gender, if statistically heterogeneous, for each detected jump

From: Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Country	Underlying cause of death	Year	Gender²	Multiplicative factor¹
				Age tertile ³
				1st	2nd	3rd
	Cerebrovascular disease	2001	Both	1.13
	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1986	Both	0.10
		2001	Both	2.24
England and Wales	Heart failure	1979	Male	4.78	3.86	3.34
			Female	4.22	3.41	2.95
		1984	Both	0.60	0.72	0.77
		1993	Both	1.83	1.58	1.37
	Renal failure	1979	Both	2.59
		1993	Both	2.93	1.53	1.50
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	Male	0.54	0.50	0.39
			Female	0.82	0.75	0.59
		2001	Both	0.87	0.94	0.75
	Heart failure	1979	Both	1.91
	Hypertension	1979	Male	0.63
			Female	0.70
		1998	Both	1.14	1.10	1.25
France	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1979	Both	0.91
	Peptic ulcer	1979	Both	0.75
		2000	Both	0.61
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	Male	0.39	0.32	0.22
			Female	0.62	0.51	0.35
		2000	Both	1.53
	Cerebrovascular disease	1991	Both	1.40
	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1991	Both	0.52
	Heart failure	1990	Both	1.71	1.46	1.27
		1991	Both	0.72
East Germany	Hypertension	1991	Male	0.45	0.51	0.58
			Female	0.52	0.58	0.67
	Ischemic heart disease	1991	Male	1.14	1.21	1.30
			Female	1.22	1.30	1.40
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1991	Male	1.14	1.17	1.32
			Female	1.04	1.07	1.20
	Rheumatic heart disease	1998	Male	0.92
			Female	1.25
	Heart failure	1979	Both	1.60
West Germany	Ischemic heart disease	1979	Male	0.98	0.92	0.76
			Female	0.93	0.88	0.72
	Rheumatic heart disease	1979	Male	0.46
			Female	0.69
	Heart failure	1979	Male	2.15	1.33	1.23
			Female	1.86	1.15	1.06
		1996	Both	0.64	0.77	0.82
Netherlands	Hypertension	1980	Both	0.95	0.81	0.70
	Renal failure	1979	Both	0.41	0.72	0.63
	Rheumatic heart disease	1992	Both	0.89	2.76	5.32
		1996	Both	0.42
Spain	Conditions originating in the perinatal period	1975	Male	2.85
			Female	3.08
	Heart failure	1980	Both	1.46
	Ischemic heart disease	1980	Both	0.94
	Malignant colorectal neoplasm	1980	Male	0.84
			Female	0.75
	Renal failure	1980	Both	1.66	1.57	1.24
	Heart failure	1987	Both	3.57	7.55	7.99
	Malignant neoplasm of testes	1974	Both	1.40
		1979	Both	0.41	0.72	0.88
Sweden	Renal failure	1987	Both	0.65
		1997	Both	1.59	0.88	1.23
	Rheumatic heart disease	1982	Both	0.12
		1987	Both	5.71	7.20	14.27

¹: Multiplicative factor of the mortality rate between the period before and after the detected jump
^2,3: Multiplicative factor estimated by age and gender, if statistically heterogeneous at the 5% level. Age and gender categorical variables were selected with a backward procedure.
³: Age categories were defined by country and cause of death in order to include a third of the number of deaths

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ISSN: 1478-7954

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