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Table 3 Logistic regression on birth by age, time, nationality, and household socio-economic status females ages 15–49, Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, South Africa

From: Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 – 2013

 

Model M3

Model M4

 

Odds ratio

95% CI

p-value

Odds ratio

95% CI

p-value

Mother's age

     

 15–19

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 20–24

1.302

[1.181, 1.436]

< 0.001

1.241

[1.119, 1.375]

< 0.001

 25–29

1.356

[1.226, 1.5]

< 0.001

1.270

[1.141, 1.413]

< 0.001

 30–34

1.123

[1.005, 1.255]

0.04

1.037

[0.922, 1.167]

0.542

 35–39

0.890

[0.787, 1.007]

0.064

0.831

[0.729, 0.948]

0.006

 40–44

0.395

[0.33, 0.473]

< 0.001

0.331

[0.272, 0.403]

< 0.001

 45–49

0.112

[0.079, 0.157]

< 0.001

0.070

[0.046, 0.106]

< 0.001

Time period

      

 2001–2003

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 2004–2007

1.177

[1.077, 1.285]

< 0.001

1.183

[1.078, 1.299]

< 0.001

 2008–2011

1.138

[1.031, 1.257]

0.011

1.207

[1.086, 1.34]

< 0.001

 2012–2013

1.038

[0.907, 1.189]

0.588

1.121

[0.97, 1.294]

0.121

Mother's age X time period

    

 20–24 X 2004–2007

0.948

[0.837, 1.073]

0.397

0.955

[0.843, 1.082]

0.472

 20–24 X 2008–2011

1.025

[0.895, 1.174]

0.724

1.016

[0.887, 1.164]

0.821

 20–24 X 2012–2013

1.060

[0.885, 1.271]

0.526

1.045

[0.872, 1.253]

0.634

 25–29 X 2004–2007

0.960

[0.843, 1.093]

0.535

0.965

[0.848, 1.099]

0.593

 25–29 X 2008–2011

0.942

[0.817, 1.087]

0.414

0.940

[0.815, 1.085]

0.397

 25–29 X 2012–2013

0.881

[0.728, 1.067]

0.194

0.872

[0.72, 1.056]

0.16

 30–34 X 2004–2007

1.032

[0.896, 1.189]

0.663

1.043

[0.905, 1.202]

0.561

 30–34 X 2008–2011

1.014

[0.867, 1.185]

0.861

1.018

[0.871, 1.19]

0.824

 30–34 X 2012–2013

0.962

[0.782, 1.184]

0.716

0.954

[0.775, 1.175]

0.659

 35–39 X 2004–2007

0.946

[0.807, 1.109]

0.492

0.941

[0.803, 1.104]

0.457

 35–39 X 2008–2011

0.925

[0.775, 1.105]

0.389

0.922

[0.772, 1.102]

0.373

 35–39 X 2012–2013

0.912

[0.718, 1.159]

0.453

0.903

[0.711, 1.147]

0.405

 40–44 X 2004–2007

0.862

[0.683, 1.088]

0.211

0.884

[0.701, 1.117]

0.302

 40–44 X 2008–2011

0.842

[0.651, 1.09]

0.193

0.857

[0.662, 1.11]

0.243

 40–44 X 2012–2013

0.761

[0.533, 1.085]

0.131

0.766

[0.537, 1.094]

0.143

 45–49 X 2004–2007

0.467

[0.279, 0.783]

0.004

0.467

[0.278, 0.784]

0.004

 45–49 X 2008–2011

0.530

[0.305, 0.92]

0.024

0.560

[0.322, 0.973]

0.04

 45–49 X 2012–2013

0.124

[0.03, 0.521]

0.004

0.126

[0.03, 0.528]

0.005

SES tertiles

      

 Low

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 Middle

0.862

[0.816, 0.911]

< 0.001

0.910

[0.859, 0.965]

0.003

 High

0.778

[0.74, 0.818]

< 0.001

0.839

[0.795, 0.886]

< 0.001

Nationality

      

 South African

  

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 Mozambican

  

1.152

[1.043, 1.271]

0.005

Mother's age X nationality

    

 20–24 X Mozambican

  

1.169

[1.054, 1.297]

0.003

 25–29 X Mozambican

  

1.228

[1.101, 1.369]

< 0.001

 30–34 X Mozambican

  

1.262

[1.121, 1.42]

< 0.001

 35–39 X Mozambican

  

1.236

[1.081, 1.413]

0.002

 40–44 X Mozambican

  

1.593

[1.316, 1.928]

< 0.001

 45–49 X Mozambican

  

2.963

[1.91, 4.594]

< 0.001

Time period X nationality

     

 2004–2007 X Mozambican

 

0.943

[0.859, 1.034]

0.211

 2008–2011 X Mozambican

 

0.781

[0.705, 0.865]

< 0.001

 2012–2013 X Mozambican

 

0.749

[0.655, 0.857]

< 0.001

 

Parameter

  

Parameter

  

σ2 female

8.87444E-06

  

5.08999E-06

  

ρ

2.70E-06

  

1.55E-06

  

N

187742

  

187635

  
  1. Household SES includes 5 imputations based on partial mean matching. Unit of analysis is person-year, with variables defined at the beginning of each person-year
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