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Table 3 Logistic regression on birth by age, time, nationality, and household socio-economic status females ages 15–49, Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, South Africa

From: Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 – 2013

  Model M3 Model M4
  Odds ratio 95% CI p-value Odds ratio 95% CI p-value
Mother's age      
 15–19 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] . 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 20–24 1.302 [1.181, 1.436] < 0.001 1.241 [1.119, 1.375] < 0.001
 25–29 1.356 [1.226, 1.5] < 0.001 1.270 [1.141, 1.413] < 0.001
 30–34 1.123 [1.005, 1.255] 0.04 1.037 [0.922, 1.167] 0.542
 35–39 0.890 [0.787, 1.007] 0.064 0.831 [0.729, 0.948] 0.006
 40–44 0.395 [0.33, 0.473] < 0.001 0.331 [0.272, 0.403] < 0.001
 45–49 0.112 [0.079, 0.157] < 0.001 0.070 [0.046, 0.106] < 0.001
Time period       
 2001–2003 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] . 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 2004–2007 1.177 [1.077, 1.285] < 0.001 1.183 [1.078, 1.299] < 0.001
 2008–2011 1.138 [1.031, 1.257] 0.011 1.207 [1.086, 1.34] < 0.001
 2012–2013 1.038 [0.907, 1.189] 0.588 1.121 [0.97, 1.294] 0.121
Mother's age X time period     
 20–24 X 2004–2007 0.948 [0.837, 1.073] 0.397 0.955 [0.843, 1.082] 0.472
 20–24 X 2008–2011 1.025 [0.895, 1.174] 0.724 1.016 [0.887, 1.164] 0.821
 20–24 X 2012–2013 1.060 [0.885, 1.271] 0.526 1.045 [0.872, 1.253] 0.634
 25–29 X 2004–2007 0.960 [0.843, 1.093] 0.535 0.965 [0.848, 1.099] 0.593
 25–29 X 2008–2011 0.942 [0.817, 1.087] 0.414 0.940 [0.815, 1.085] 0.397
 25–29 X 2012–2013 0.881 [0.728, 1.067] 0.194 0.872 [0.72, 1.056] 0.16
 30–34 X 2004–2007 1.032 [0.896, 1.189] 0.663 1.043 [0.905, 1.202] 0.561
 30–34 X 2008–2011 1.014 [0.867, 1.185] 0.861 1.018 [0.871, 1.19] 0.824
 30–34 X 2012–2013 0.962 [0.782, 1.184] 0.716 0.954 [0.775, 1.175] 0.659
 35–39 X 2004–2007 0.946 [0.807, 1.109] 0.492 0.941 [0.803, 1.104] 0.457
 35–39 X 2008–2011 0.925 [0.775, 1.105] 0.389 0.922 [0.772, 1.102] 0.373
 35–39 X 2012–2013 0.912 [0.718, 1.159] 0.453 0.903 [0.711, 1.147] 0.405
 40–44 X 2004–2007 0.862 [0.683, 1.088] 0.211 0.884 [0.701, 1.117] 0.302
 40–44 X 2008–2011 0.842 [0.651, 1.09] 0.193 0.857 [0.662, 1.11] 0.243
 40–44 X 2012–2013 0.761 [0.533, 1.085] 0.131 0.766 [0.537, 1.094] 0.143
 45–49 X 2004–2007 0.467 [0.279, 0.783] 0.004 0.467 [0.278, 0.784] 0.004
 45–49 X 2008–2011 0.530 [0.305, 0.92] 0.024 0.560 [0.322, 0.973] 0.04
 45–49 X 2012–2013 0.124 [0.03, 0.521] 0.004 0.126 [0.03, 0.528] 0.005
SES tertiles       
 Low 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] . 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 Middle 0.862 [0.816, 0.911] < 0.001 0.910 [0.859, 0.965] 0.003
 High 0.778 [0.74, 0.818] < 0.001 0.839 [0.795, 0.886] < 0.001
Nationality       
 South African    1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 Mozambican    1.152 [1.043, 1.271] 0.005
Mother's age X nationality     
 20–24 X Mozambican    1.169 [1.054, 1.297] 0.003
 25–29 X Mozambican    1.228 [1.101, 1.369] < 0.001
 30–34 X Mozambican    1.262 [1.121, 1.42] < 0.001
 35–39 X Mozambican    1.236 [1.081, 1.413] 0.002
 40–44 X Mozambican    1.593 [1.316, 1.928] < 0.001
 45–49 X Mozambican    2.963 [1.91, 4.594] < 0.001
Time period X nationality      
 2004–2007 X Mozambican   0.943 [0.859, 1.034] 0.211
 2008–2011 X Mozambican   0.781 [0.705, 0.865] < 0.001
 2012–2013 X Mozambican   0.749 [0.655, 0.857] < 0.001
  Parameter    Parameter   
σ2 female 8.87444E-06    5.08999E-06   
ρ 2.70E-06    1.55E-06   
N 187742    187635   
  1. Household SES includes 5 imputations based on partial mean matching. Unit of analysis is person-year, with variables defined at the beginning of each person-year