Table 2 T2DM prevalence (%) projections to 2020 based on various body mass index (BMI) scenarios, 2011–2020

2011 STEPS prevalence^a

11.13

(10.34–11.92)

13.61

(12.73–14.48)

17.90

(16.41–19.39)

19.93

(18.61–21.26)

15.61

(15.06–16.16)

Projected to 2020 from period trend only^b

13.27

(13.22–13.33)

16.73

(16.66–16.81)

23.37

(23.09–23.65)

24.14

(23.99–24.29)

19.28

(19.19–19.37)

Projected to 2020 from period and BMI trends^c

15.35

(12.12–18.58)

19.90

(16.83–22.98)

21.14

(16.88–25.40)

23.09

(19.37–26.81)

20.56

(18.78–22.35)

Projected: no weight change 2011-20^c

15.18

(11.97–18.40)

18.16

(15.20–21.13)

20.67

(16.44–24.89)

21.73

(18.09–25.38)

18.82

(17.10–20.55)

  −1 kg

14.67

(11.50–17.84)

17.59

(14.66–20.52)

20.24

(16.05–24.43)

21.08

(17.47–24.68)

17.94

(16.25–19.63)

  −2 kg

14.24

(11.11–17.37)

17.01

(14.11–19.90)

19.74

(15.59–23.89)

20.45

(16.89–24.02)

17.08

(15.42–18.74)

  −3 kg

13.82

(10.73–16.92)

16.44

(13.59–19.30)

19.25

(15.13–23.36)

19.85

(16.32–23.37)

16.25

(14.63)

  −4 kg

13.42

(10.73–16.92)

15.90

(13.09–18.72)

18.77

(14.70–22.84)

19.26

(15.77–22.74)

15.47

(13.87–17.07)

  +1 kg

15.57

(12.32–18.82)

18.81

(15.80–21.82)

21.29

(17.02–25.56)

22.38

(20.85–23.92)

19.80

(18.04–21.56)

  +2 kg

16.04

(12.75–19.33)

19.46

(16.41–22.51)

21.83

(17.52–26.14)

23.07

(19.35–26.79)

20.80

(19.01–22.60)

  +3 kg

16.52

(13.20–19.85)

20.12

(17.04–23.21)

22.38

(18.04–26.73)

23.77

(20.01–27.53)

21.86

(20.03–23.68)

  +4 kg

17.02

(13.66–20.39)

20.81

(17.69–23.94)

22.95

(18.57–27.34)

24.50

(20.70–28.30)

22.96

(21.11–24.82)