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Table 1 Results of simulations using disease models X1 and X 2, comparing the estimated disease burden between no-heterogeneity and heterogeneity variants. Results indicate the total burden for individuals acutely infected in simulation year 1, with 95% quantile intervals

From: The impact of individual-level heterogeneity on estimated infectious disease burden: a simulation study

Disease model [–Variant] YLD YLL (95% interval) DALY (95% interval) Overestimation of DALY (95% interval)
  X 1 (3 health outcomes, 4 broad age-groups specified for transition from chronic infection to death)
  – No heterogeneity 75 1243 1318 1.16 (1.11–1.22)
  – Heterogeneitya 75 1060 (1007–1117) 1135 (1082–1192 –
  X 2 (4 health outcomes)
  – No heterogeneity 10750 10210 (9380–11090) 20960 (20140–21740) 1.04 (1.01–1.08)
  – Heterogeneityb 11010 9074 (8411–9887) 20090 (19440–20780) –
  1. Note: aGamma distributions, with mean increasing with age. bAge-independent, sampled from Gamma(1,1). Overestimation of DALY is with respect to heterogeneity model variant
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Population Health Metrics

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