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Table 3 Age-specific changes in incidence of selected chronic conditions, 1995 to 2014

From: Evolution of the “fourth stage” of epidemiologic transition in people aged 80 years and over: population-based cohort study using electronic health records

Condition

Age group (years)

Hazard ratioa (95% CI)

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2014

CHD

80-84

Ref.

0.93 (0.88 to 0.98)

0.63 (0.59 to 0.67)

0.54 (0.50 to 0.58)

85-89

Ref.

0.88 (0.82 to 0.94)

0.62 (0.58 to 0.66)

0.55 (0.51 to 0.60)

90-94

Ref.

0.90 (0.82 to 0.99)

0.67 (0.61 to 0.74)

0.59 (0.67 to 0.76)

95-99

Ref.

0.92 (0.78 to 1.10)

0.67 (0.56 to 0.79)

0.70 (0.59 to 0.84)

100+

Ref.

0.78 (0.46 to 1.33)

0.56 (0.32 to 0.96)

1.96 (1.17 to 3.30)

Stroke

80-84

Ref.

0.95 (0.88 to 1.02)

0.80 (0.74 to 0.87)

0.83 (0.76 to 0.90)

85-89

Ref.

0.83 (0.77 to 0.89)

0.68 (0.63 to 0.73)

0.71 (0.66 to 0.77)

90-94

Ref.

0.78 (0.71 to 0.84)

0.63 (0.58 to 0.69)

0.59 (0.54 to 0.65)

95-99

Ref.

0.79 (0.69 to 0.91)

0.56 (0.48 to 0.64)

0.53 (0.46 to 0.62)

100+

Ref.

0.58 (0.40 to 0.85)

0.51 (0.35 to 0.74)

0.44 (0.30 to 0.65)

COPD

80-84

Ref.

0.66 (0.62 to 0.71)

0.63 (0.59 to 0.68)

0.59 (0.54 to 0.64)

85-89

Ref.

0.57 (0.52 to 0.62)

0.52 (0.48 to 0.56)

0.47 (0.43 to 0.52)

90-94

Ref.

0.47 (0.42 to 0.53)

0.35 (0.31 to 0.40)

0.36 (0.32 to 0.41)

95-99

Ref.

0.40 (0.32 to 0.51)

0.28 (0.22 to 0.35)

0.24 (0.18 to 0.30)

100+

Ref.

0.44 (0.23 to 0.86)

0.31 (0.16 to 0.62)

0.15 (0.07 to 0.35)

Cancer

80-84

Ref.

1.08 (1.02 to 1.15)

1.31 (1.24 to 1.39)

1.52 (1.43 to 1.61)

85-89

Ref.

1.07 (1.00 to 1.14)

1.36 (1.28 to 1.45)

1.45 (1.36 to 1.54)

90-94

Ref.

1.15 (1.05 to 1.26)

1.33 (1.22 to 1.45)

1.38 (1.26 to 1.50)

95-99

Ref.

1.08 (0.91 to 1.28)

1.20 (1.02 to 1.42)

1.44 (1.22 to 1.70)

100+

Ref.

0.87 (0.46 to 1.63)

1.17 (0.65 to 2.12)

1.69 (0.95 to 3.00)

Diabetes mellitusb

80-84

Ref.

1.62 (1.46 to 1.78)

2.02 (1.83 to 2.23)

2.18 (1.96 to 2.42)

85-89

Ref.

2.45 (2.01 to 2.99)

3.65 (3.02 to 4.41)

5.41 (4.47 to 6.53)

  1. CI confidence interval
  2. aAdjusted for time and sex
  3. bNo incident diabetes events over 90 years of age