From: Impact of HPV vaccination: health gains in the Italian female population
Parameter | Description and parameters used to estimate transition probabilities | Source |
---|---|---|
Transitions from the health state (State 1) | ||
_{ x } λ _{11} | Probability of permanence in healthy state without onset of HPV-related diseases (addition to 1 of the remaining probabilities from state 1) 1 − _{ x } λ _{12} − _{ x } λ _{13} − _{ x } λ _{14} − _{ x } λ _{15} − _{ x } λ _{16} − _{ x } λ _{18} | Complementary probability |
_{ x } λ _{12} | Probability of genital warts onset = incidence of diagnosis by age in genital warts | [11, 14, 59, 63, 64] |
_{ x } λ _{13} | Probability to contract a CIN 1 = incidence of diagnosis by age of CIN 1 | [11, 65,66,67] |
_{ x } λ _{14} | Probability to contract a CIN 2/3 = incidence of diagnosis by age of CIN 2/3 | [11, 65,66,67] |
_{ x } λ _{15} | Probability of cervical cancer onset by age = incidence of cervical cancer by age (assuming all cancers are diagnosed) | [60] |
_{ x } λ _{16} | Probability of anal cancer onset by age = incidence of anal cancer by age (assuming all cancers are diagnosed) | [60, 68] |
Transitions from the genital warts state (State 2) | ||
_{ x } λ _{22} | Probability of permanence of genital warts by age = Recurrence rate of genital warts by age between age x − 1 and x | [11, 59, 69] |
_{ x } λ _{21} | Probability of healing from genital warts = 1 − _{ x } λ _{22} − _{ x } λ _{28} | Complementary probability |
Transitions from state of CIN 1 (State 3) | ||
_{ x } λ _{33} | Probability of permanence of CIN 1 by age =1 − _{ x } λ _{31} − _{ x } λ _{38} | Complementary probability |
_{ x } λ _{34} | Transition probability from CIN 1 to CIN 2/3 = progression rate of the disease by age from state CIN 1 to CIN 2/3 | [11, 70] |
_{ x } λ _{31} | Probability of healing from CIN 1 by age = spontaneous regression rate of the disease by age. In this case women are only observed and not treated. | [11, 70,71,72] |
Transitions from state of CIN 2/3 (State 4) | ||
_{ x } λ _{44} | Probability of permanence in CIN 2/3 =1 − _{ x } λ _{41} − _{ x } λ _{48} | Complementary probability |
_{ x } λ _{41} | Probability of healing from CIN 2/3 by age = efficacy rate of health care intervention on diagnosed women (Constant by age) | [11, 70,71,72] |
_{ x } λ _{45} | Transition probability from CIN 2/3 to CCU state by age for lack of efficacy of health care intervention = progression rate of the disease by age | [11, 66, 70,71,72] |
Transitions from Cervical cancer state (State 5) | ||
_{ x } λ _{55} | Probability of permanence of CCU state by age = recurrence rate (recurrence of disease) of CCU | [73, 74] |
_{ x } λ _{51} | Probability of healing from cervical cancer state by age = 1 − _{ x } λ _{55} − _{ x } λ _{57}−_{ x } λ _{59} | Complementary probability |
_{ x } λ _{57} | Probability of death from cervical cancer by age for ill subjects =1 − _{ x } λ _{59} − 5 − year survival by age | [28, 75] |
Transitions from Anal Cancer (State 6) | ||
_{ x } λ _{66} | Probability of permanence in CCU state by age = recurrence rate of anal cancer (recurrence of disease) | [68] |
_{ x } λ _{61} | Probability of healing from cervical cancer state by age =1 − _{ x } λ _{66} − _{ x } λ _{67}−_{ x } λ _{69} | [28, 75] |
_{ x } λ _{68} | Probability of death from anal cancer by age for ill subjects =1 − _{ x } λ _{69} − 5 − year survival by age | Complementary probability |
Transitions to death for other causes (State i - > State 9) | ||
_{
x
}
λ
_{
i9}
i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 | Probability of death by age from any state for other causes except for cervical cancer = Probability of general death by age | [28] |