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Table 3 Sensitivity analysis (incidence ±20%) for the projection of the future percent prevalence (%) of diagnosed diabetes among US adults, by age group, for selected years 2014–2060

From: Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060

Age group (in years)
Incidence + 20% 18–44 45–64 65–74 ≥75 Total
2014 2.5 12.3 20.8 18.5 9.1
(2.3, 2.6) (11.7, 12.9) (19.9, 21.7) (17.4, 19.6) (8.6, 9.5)
2020 3.5 15.5 25.5 23.7 12
(3.2, 3.8) (14.8, 16.4) (24.4, 26.5) (22.5, 25.0) (11.4, 12.6)
2030 4.5 18.8 30.9 31.2 15.6
(4.0, 5.1) (17.5, 20.3) (29.2, 32.7) (29.5, 33.2) (14.6, 16.8)
2040 4.7 20.8 34.8 35.8 18
(4.2, 5.4) (19.2, 22.6) (32.6, 37.1) (33.6, 38.2) (16.6, 19.5)
2050 4.8 22.4 37.3 38.8 19.5
(4.2, 5.5) (20.5, 24.4) (34.8, 39.9) (36.3, 41.6) (18.0, 21.1)
2060 4.8 22.8 39.1 41.5 20.7
(4.2, 5.5) (21.0, 24.9) (36.5, 41.9) (38.7, 44.6) (19.1, 22.5)
Age group (in years)
Incidence −20% 18–44 45–64 65–74 ≥75 Total
2014 2.5 12.3 20.8 18.5 9.1
(2.3, 2.6) (11.7, 12.9) (19.9, 21.7) (17.4, 19.6) (8.6, 9.5)
2020 2.8 13.2 22.7 21.7 10.4
(2.6, 3.1) (12.6, 13.9) (21.9, 23.6) (20.8, 22.8) (9.9, 10.9)
2030 3.3 14.1 24.4 25.9 12.2
(3.0, 3.8) (13.1, 15.1) (23.1, 25.8) (24.6, 27.3) (11.4, 13.0)
2040 3.5 14.9 25.8 27.6 13.3
(3.1, 3.9) (13.7, 16.2) (24.2, 27.6) (26.0, 29.5) (12.3, 14.4)
2050 3.5 15.8 27 28.7 14.1
(3.1, 4.0) (14.5, 17.2) (25.2, 29.1) (26.8, 30.9) (13.0, 15.3)
2060 3.5 16.1 28.2 30 14.9
(3.1, 4.0) (14.7, 17.6) (26.1, 30.4) (27.9, 32.5) (13.7, 16.2)
  1. These projections represent worst-case (high incidence) and best-case (low incidence) alternatives to the most likely base-case scenario. 95% confidence intervals are given in parentheses