Population Health Metrics

Table 4 Deterministic and probabilistic model projections of the number of advanced NSCLC patients receiving second- and third-line therapy in 2016 and in 2020 by country

From: The present and future burden of previously treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by histology and line of therapy in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain: model-based predictions

Country	Burden of illness measure	Year of estimate
		2016				2020
		Deterministic	Probabilistic			Deterministic	Probabilistic
		Mean	Mean	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI	Mean	Mean	Lower 95% CI	Upper 95% CI
France	Second LOT	11,600	11,700	10,500	12,800	13,900	13,900	12,500	15,400
France	Third LOT	3500	3500	3200	3800	4200	4200	3800	4500
Germany	Second LOT	15,100	15,200	13,600	16,700	16,200	16,200	14,600	17,900
Germany	Third LOT	4900	4900	4500	5400	5200	5300	4800	5700
Italy	Second LOT	13,500	13,600	11,900	15,600	15,100	15,600	13,500	18,200
Italy	Third LOT	2500	2500	2200	2800	2600	2700	2400	3100
Spain	Second LOT	9400	9600	8400	11,100	11,000	11,800	9600	14,700
Spain	Third LOT	2100	2200	1900	2400	2500	2600	2200	3300

Key: CI confidence interval, LOT line of therapy, NSCLC non-small cell lung cancer

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