Modelled scenario | T2DM prevalence (2031) | Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence | # of T2DM cases averted (2016-2031) | Proportion of T2DM cases averted | # of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2031) | Proportion of T2DM-related deaths averted | T2DM prevalence (2050) | Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence | # of T2DM cases averted (2016-2050) | Proportion of T2DM cases averted | # of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2050) | Proportion of T2DM-related deaths averted |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline with no intervention | 18.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 24.0% | - | - | - | - | - |
Impact of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for Noncommunicable Diseases (Fig. 1) | ||||||||||||
Halt PO, reduce PS by 30% and reduce PPIA by 10% | 17.7% | 4.7% | 2148 | 7.0% | 28 | 0.7% | 21.0% | 12.0% | 9147 | 13.2% | 383 | 3.2% |
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of obesity (PO) in the population (Fig. 2) | ||||||||||||
Halt PO at 41.4% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 958 | 3.1% | 15 | 0.4% | 22.0% | 7.8% | 5,828 | 8.4% | 247 | 2.1% |
Reduce PO by 10% (PO=37.3% in 2031) | 17.7% | 5.1% | 2,359 | 7.7% | 38 | 0.9% | 20.8% | 12.8% | 9,914 | 14.3% | 508 | 4.3% |
Reduce PO by 20% (PO=33.1% in 2031) | 17.1% | 8.0% | 3,696 | 12.1% | 60 | 1.4% | 19.6% | 17.8% | 14,000 | 20.2% | 753 | 6.4% |
Reduce PO by 30% (PO=29.0% in 2031) | 16.4% | 11.7% | 5,409 | 17.7% | 90 | 2.1% | 18.2% | 23.8% | 18,848 | 27.2% | 1,050 | 8.9% |
Reduce PO by 40% (PO=24.8% in 2031) | 15.8% | 15.0% | 6,945 | 22.7% | 117 | 2.8% | 17.1% | 28.4% | 22,646 | 32.7% | 1,297 | 11.0% |
Reduce PO by 50% (PO=20.7% in 2031) | 15.1% | 18.8% | 8,688 | 28.4% | 151 | 3.6% | 15.8% | 33.7% | 26,930 | 38.9% | 1,564 | 13.2% |
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of smoking (PS) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S3) | ||||||||||||
Halt PS at 16.2% | 18.6% | 0.2% | 79 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.02% | 23.8% | 0.5% | 321 | 0.5% | 11 | 0.1% |
Reduce PS by 10% (PS=14.6% in 2031) | 18.5% | 0.5% | 243 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.1% | 23.6% | 1.2% | 931 | 1.3% | 33 | 0.3% |
Reduce PS by 20% (PS=13.0% in 2031) | 18.5% | 0.7% | 343 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.1% | 23.5% | 1.5% | 1,222 | 1.8% | 45 | 0.4% |
Reduce PS by 30% (PS=11.3% in 2031) | 18.4% | 1.0% | 458 | 1.5% | 5 | 0.1% | 23.4% | 2.0% | 1,559 | 2.3% | 59 | 0.5% |
Reduce PS by 40% (PS=9.7% in 2031) | 18.4% | 1.3% | 608 | 2.0% | 7 | 0.2% | 23.3% | 2.5% | 1,999 | 2.9% | 77 | 0.7% |
Reduce PS by 50% (PS=8.1% in 2031) | 18.3% | 1.5% | 693 | 2.3% | 9 | 0.2% | 23.2% | 2.8% | 2,184 | 3.2% | 86 | 0.7% |
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of physical inactivity (PPIA) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S4) | ||||||||||||
Halt PPIA at 46.0% | 18.6% | 0.2% | 111 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.05% | 23.7% | 0.5% | 350 | 0.5% | 22 | 0.2% |
Reduce PPIA by 10% (PPIA=41.4% in 2031) | 18.4% | 1.0% | 488 | 1.6% | 9 | 0.2% | 23.3% | 2.5% | 1,969 | 2.8% | 106 | 0.9% |
Reduce PPIA by 20% (PPIA=36.8% in 2031) | 18.3% | 1.5% | 739 | 2.4% | 14 | 0.3% | 23.0% | 3.6% | 2,854 | 4.1% | 157 | 1.3% |
Reduce PPIA by 30% (PPIA=32.2% in 2031) | 18.2% | 2.2% | 1,029 | 3.4% | 19 | 0.5% | 22.7% | 4.7% | 3,691 | 5.3% | 210 | 1.8% |
Reduce PPIA by 40% (PPIA=27.6% in 2031) | 18.1% | 2.9% | 1,365 | 4.5% | 26 | 0.6% | 22.5% | 5.8% | 4,614 | 6.7% | 270 | 2.3% |
Reduce PPIA by 50% (PPIA=23.0% in 2031) | 17.9% | 3.7% | 1,744 | 5.7% | 34 | 0.8% | 22.2% | 6.9% | 5,482 | 7.9% | 332 | 2.8% |