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Table 1 Impact of different generic intervention-for-prevention scenarios on the cases and deaths of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among Qataris between 2016 and 2031

From: Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses

Modelled scenarioT2DM prevalence (2031)Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence# of T2DM cases averted (2016-2031)Proportion of T2DM cases averted# of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2031)Proportion of T2DM-related deaths avertedT2DM prevalence (2050)Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence# of T2DM cases averted (2016-2050)Proportion of T2DM cases averted# of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2050)Proportion of T2DM-related deaths averted
Baseline with no intervention18.6%-----24.0%-----
Impact of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for Noncommunicable Diseases (Fig. 1)
Halt PO, reduce PS by 30% and reduce PPIA by 10%17.7%4.7%21487.0%280.7%21.0%12.0%914713.2%3833.2%
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of obesity (PO) in the population (Fig. 2)
Halt PO at 41.4%18.2%2.0%9583.1%150.4%22.0%7.8%5,8288.4%2472.1%
Reduce PO by 10% (PO=37.3% in 2031)17.7%5.1%2,3597.7%380.9%20.8%12.8%9,91414.3%5084.3%
Reduce PO by 20% (PO=33.1% in 2031)17.1%8.0%3,69612.1%601.4%19.6%17.8%14,00020.2%7536.4%
Reduce PO by 30% (PO=29.0% in 2031)16.4%11.7%5,40917.7%902.1%18.2%23.8%18,84827.2%1,0508.9%
Reduce PO by 40% (PO=24.8% in 2031)15.8%15.0%6,94522.7%1172.8%17.1%28.4%22,64632.7%1,29711.0%
Reduce PO by 50% (PO=20.7% in 2031)15.1%18.8%8,68828.4%1513.6%15.8%33.7%26,93038.9%1,56413.2%
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of smoking (PS) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S3)
Halt PS at 16.2%18.6%0.2%790.3%10.02%23.8%0.5%3210.5%110.1%
Reduce PS by 10% (PS=14.6% in 2031)18.5%0.5%2430.7%30.1%23.6%1.2%9311.3%330.3%
Reduce PS by 20% (PS=13.0% in 2031)18.5%0.7%3431.1%40.1%23.5%1.5%1,2221.8%450.4%
Reduce PS by 30% (PS=11.3% in 2031)18.4%1.0%4581.5%50.1%23.4%2.0%1,5592.3%590.5%
Reduce PS by 40% (PS=9.7% in 2031)18.4%1.3%6082.0%70.2%23.3%2.5%1,9992.9%770.7%
Reduce PS by 50% (PS=8.1% in 2031)18.3%1.5%6932.3%90.2%23.2%2.8%2,1843.2%860.7%
Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of physical inactivity (PPIA) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S4)
Halt PPIA at 46.0%18.6%0.2%1110.4%20.05%23.7%0.5%3500.5%220.2%
Reduce PPIA by 10% (PPIA=41.4% in 2031)18.4%1.0%4881.6%90.2%23.3%2.5%1,9692.8%1060.9%
Reduce PPIA by 20% (PPIA=36.8% in 2031)18.3%1.5%7392.4%140.3%23.0%3.6%2,8544.1%1571.3%
Reduce PPIA by 30% (PPIA=32.2% in 2031)18.2%2.2%1,0293.4%190.5%22.7%4.7%3,6915.3%2101.8%
Reduce PPIA by 40% (PPIA=27.6% in 2031)18.1%2.9%1,3654.5%260.6%22.5%5.8%4,6146.7%2702.3%
Reduce PPIA by 50% (PPIA=23.0% in 2031)17.9%3.7%1,7445.7%340.8%22.2%6.9%5,4827.9%3322.8%
  1. PO: obesity prevalence; PS: smoking prevalence; PPIA: physical inactivity prevalence.