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Table 1 Impact of different generic intervention-for-prevention scenarios on the cases and deaths of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among Qataris between 2016 and 2031

From: Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses

Modelled scenario

T2DM prevalence (2031)

Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence

# of T2DM cases averted (2016-2031)

Proportion of T2DM cases averted

# of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2031)

Proportion of T2DM-related deaths averted

T2DM prevalence (2050)

Relative reduction in T2DM prevalence

# of T2DM cases averted (2016-2050)

Proportion of T2DM cases averted

# of T2DM-related deaths averted (2016-2050)

Proportion of T2DM-related deaths averted

Baseline with no intervention

18.6%

-

-

-

-

-

24.0%

-

-

-

-

-

Impact of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for Noncommunicable Diseases (Fig. 1)

Halt PO, reduce PS by 30% and reduce PPIA by 10%

17.7%

4.7%

2148

7.0%

28

0.7%

21.0%

12.0%

9147

13.2%

383

3.2%

Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of obesity (PO) in the population (Fig. 2)

Halt PO at 41.4%

18.2%

2.0%

958

3.1%

15

0.4%

22.0%

7.8%

5,828

8.4%

247

2.1%

Reduce PO by 10% (PO=37.3% in 2031)

17.7%

5.1%

2,359

7.7%

38

0.9%

20.8%

12.8%

9,914

14.3%

508

4.3%

Reduce PO by 20% (PO=33.1% in 2031)

17.1%

8.0%

3,696

12.1%

60

1.4%

19.6%

17.8%

14,000

20.2%

753

6.4%

Reduce PO by 30% (PO=29.0% in 2031)

16.4%

11.7%

5,409

17.7%

90

2.1%

18.2%

23.8%

18,848

27.2%

1,050

8.9%

Reduce PO by 40% (PO=24.8% in 2031)

15.8%

15.0%

6,945

22.7%

117

2.8%

17.1%

28.4%

22,646

32.7%

1,297

11.0%

Reduce PO by 50% (PO=20.7% in 2031)

15.1%

18.8%

8,688

28.4%

151

3.6%

15.8%

33.7%

26,930

38.9%

1,564

13.2%

Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of smoking (PS) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S3)

Halt PS at 16.2%

18.6%

0.2%

79

0.3%

1

0.02%

23.8%

0.5%

321

0.5%

11

0.1%

Reduce PS by 10% (PS=14.6% in 2031)

18.5%

0.5%

243

0.7%

3

0.1%

23.6%

1.2%

931

1.3%

33

0.3%

Reduce PS by 20% (PS=13.0% in 2031)

18.5%

0.7%

343

1.1%

4

0.1%

23.5%

1.5%

1,222

1.8%

45

0.4%

Reduce PS by 30% (PS=11.3% in 2031)

18.4%

1.0%

458

1.5%

5

0.1%

23.4%

2.0%

1,559

2.3%

59

0.5%

Reduce PS by 40% (PS=9.7% in 2031)

18.4%

1.3%

608

2.0%

7

0.2%

23.3%

2.5%

1,999

2.9%

77

0.7%

Reduce PS by 50% (PS=8.1% in 2031)

18.3%

1.5%

693

2.3%

9

0.2%

23.2%

2.8%

2,184

3.2%

86

0.7%

Impact of reducing (by 2031) the prevalence of physical inactivity (PPIA) in the population (Additional file 1: Figure S4)

Halt PPIA at 46.0%

18.6%

0.2%

111

0.4%

2

0.05%

23.7%

0.5%

350

0.5%

22

0.2%

Reduce PPIA by 10% (PPIA=41.4% in 2031)

18.4%

1.0%

488

1.6%

9

0.2%

23.3%

2.5%

1,969

2.8%

106

0.9%

Reduce PPIA by 20% (PPIA=36.8% in 2031)

18.3%

1.5%

739

2.4%

14

0.3%

23.0%

3.6%

2,854

4.1%

157

1.3%

Reduce PPIA by 30% (PPIA=32.2% in 2031)

18.2%

2.2%

1,029

3.4%

19

0.5%

22.7%

4.7%

3,691

5.3%

210

1.8%

Reduce PPIA by 40% (PPIA=27.6% in 2031)

18.1%

2.9%

1,365

4.5%

26

0.6%

22.5%

5.8%

4,614

6.7%

270

2.3%

Reduce PPIA by 50% (PPIA=23.0% in 2031)

17.9%

3.7%

1,744

5.7%

34

0.8%

22.2%

6.9%

5,482

7.9%

332

2.8%

  1. PO: obesity prevalence; PS: smoking prevalence; PPIA: physical inactivity prevalence.