Table 1 Data and initial parameters for the US Smoking and Vaping Model

Population

Population by age, gender, and year (2013–2060)

US population projections [12, 13]

Mortality rates

Mortality rates by age, gender, and year for never, current, and former smokers (2013–2060)

CISNET Lung Group, ([43], Holford, [50, 47, 88]) available on the CISNET website [16].

Expected life years

Expected life years remaining of never smokers by age, gender, and year (2013–2060)

CISNET Lung Group, ([43, 45, 47, 88]) available on the CISNET website [16].

Smoking prevalence

Current and former smoking prevalence by age and gender for initial year

CISNET Lung Group, ([43], Holford, [50, 47, 88]) available on the CISNET website [16].

NVP relative risk multiplier

Excess risk of NVP use measured relative to excess smoking risks (mortality rate of current smokers − mortality rate of never smokers)

NVP mortality risks estimated to be 5% that of smoking excess risk for both genders at all ages, based on multi-criteria decision analysis [75] and independent review [64].

NVP switching rate

Rate of switching from smoking cigarettes to exclusive NVP use

Ranges from 0.6–8.0%, estimated by age group and gender using prospective analysis from PATH data 2013–2018

Smoking initiation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

Ratio of smoking initiation rate in the NVP Scenario to the No-NVP Scenario

75% of No-NVP smoking initiation rate, based on [57].

NVP initiation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

Ratio of NVP initiation rate in the NVP Scenario to the No-NVP Scenario

50% of No-NVP smoking initiation rate, based on recent studies ([20, 40, 68, 69]).

Smoking cessation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

Ratio of smoking cessation rate in the NVP Scenario to the No-NVP Scenario

100% of the No-NVP smoking cessation rate

NVP cessation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

Ratio of NVP cessation rate in the NVP Scenario to the No-NVP Scenario

100% of the No-NVP smoking cessation rate