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Table 5 Sensitivity analysis: smoking-attributable deaths and deaths averted in the No-NVP Scenario and NVP Scenario across parameter changes, both genders, ages 18–99, 2013–2060

From: Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

Scenario

NVP relative risk (RiskNVP)a = 5%

NVP relative risk (RiskNVP) = 40%

Relative change (5% vs 40%)d

No-NVP Scenario

Total SADs

Total SADs

17,579,392

–

17,579,392

–

NVP Scenario with parameter changes from baseline

Averted SADs and SVADsb

Relative change (vs. baseline estimate)c

Averted SADs and SVADsb

Relative change (vs. baseline estimate)c

Baseline estimatee

1,833,727

0.0%

1,061,490

0.0%

− 42.1%

50% of switch rate,f no decayg

1,124,559

− 38.7%

636,758

− 40.0%

− 43.4%

200% of switch rate, no decay

2,756,913

50.3%

1,611,641

51.8%

− 41.5%

100% of switch rate, 10% annual decay

1,102,703

− 39.9%

619,565

− 41.6%

− 43.8%

100% of switch rate, annually increase of 5% in the first 5 years

2,036,207

11.0%

1,182,961

11.4%

− 41.9%

25% of smoking initiation

1,938,925

5.7%

1,212,317

14.2%

− 37.5%

125% of smoking initiation multiplier

1,737,970

− 5.2%

924,283

− 12.9%

− 46.8%

25% of NVP initiationi

1,836,013

0.1%

1,104,549

4.1%

− 39.8%

75% of NVP initiation

1,831,576

− 0.1%

1,020,458

− 3.9%

− 44.3%

50% of smoking cessationj

224

− 100.0%

− 934,792

− 188.1%

− 41800%

150% of smoking cessation

2,913,448

58.9%

2,254,369

112.4%

− 22.6%

50% of NVP cessationk

1,782,054

− 2.8%

686,449

− 35.3%

− 61.5%

150% of NVP cessation

1,864,824

1.7%

1,291,320

21.7%

− 30.8%

  1. NVP nicotine vaping product, LYLs life-years lost
  2. aThe NVP relative risk multiplier is the mortality risk of NVPs as a percentage of the excess mortality risk of smoking
  3. bThe absolute reduction in life-years lost in the NVP Scenario compared with the No-NVP Scenario over 2013–2060
  4. cThe relative percent change in averted LYLs for each NVP Scenario is compared with the initial NVP Scenario (best estimate). A negative (positive) value implies that changing the parameter will decrease (increase) the averted LYLs in the specific scenario relative to averted LYLs in the initial NVP Scenario
  5. dThe relative percent change in averted LYLs between scenarios with NVP risk multipliers of 5% vs. 40% is calculated as (Averted LYLs with 40% NVP risk − Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk)/Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk
  6. eThe initial values for each input parameter in the NVP Scenario are as follows. NVP switching rate with no decay for males females): 4% (2.5%) for ages 24 and below, 2.5% (2.0%) for ages 25–34, 2.5% (1.6%) for age 35–44, 1.3% (1.4%) for ages 45–54, 1.2% (1.4%) for ages 55–64, and 0.6% (1.0%) for ages 65 and above; smoking initiation multiplier = 75%; NVP initiation multiplier = 50%; Smoking cessation multiplier = NVP cessation multiplier =100%
  7. fNVP switching rate is the annual rate at which current smokers switch to NVPs
  8. gAnnual decay rate is the exponential rate of decline in switching rates over time
  9. hSmoking initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation in the No-NVP Scenario
  10. iNVP initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
  11. jSmoking cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation in the No-NVP Scenario
  12. kNVP cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
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Population Health Metrics

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