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Table 6 Sensitivity analysis: life-years lost and averted life years lost in the No-NVP Scenario and NVP Scenario across parameter changes, both genders, ages 18–99, 2013–2060

From: Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

Scenario

NVP relative risk (RiskNVP)a = 5%

NVP relative risk (RiskNVP) = 40%

Relative change (5% vs 40%)d

No-NVP Scenario

Total LYLs

Total LYLs

 

195,592,836

–

195,592,836

–

NVP Scenario with parameter changes from baseline

Averted LYLsb

Relative change (vs. baseline estimate)c

Averted LYLsb

Relative change (vs. baseline estimate)c

 

Baseline estimatee

38,866,015

0.0%

22,647,153

0.0%

− 41.7%

50% of switch rate,f no decayg

24,568,915

− 36.8%

13,852,732

− 38.8%

− 43.6%

200% of switch rate, no decay

56,957,653

46.5%

33,756,316

49.1%

− 40.7%

100% of switch rate, 10% annual decay

23,976,479

− 38.3%

13,438,461

− 40.7%

− 44.0%

100% of switch rate, annually increase of 5% in the first five years

42,877,168

10.3%

25,119,390

10.9%

− 41.4%

25% of smoking initiationh

42,143,294

8.4%

27,380,768

20.9%

− 35.0%

125% of smoking initiation

35,915,686

− 7.6%

18,383,498

− 18.8%

− 48.8%

25% of NVP initiationi

38,925,863

0.2%

23,991,685

5.9%

− 38.4%

75% of NVP initiation

38,810,575

− 0.1%

21,372,002

− 5.6%

− 44.9%

50% of smoking cessationj

13,772,377

− 64.6%

− 5,035,938

− 122.2%

− 136.6%

150% of smoking cessation

55,337,637

42.4%

41,046,115

81.2%

− 25.8%

50% of NVP cessationk

38,048,498

− 2.1%

16,364,318

− 27.7%

− 57.0%

150% of NVP cessation

39,411,329

1.4%

26,857,771

18.6%

− 31.9%

  1. NVP nicotine vaping product, LYLs life-years lost
  2. aThe NVP relative risk multiplier is the mortality risk of NVPs as a percentage of the excess mortality risk of smoking
  3. bThe absolute reduction in life-years lost in the NVP Scenario compared with the No-NVP Scenario over 2013–2060
  4. cThe relative percent change in averted LYLs for each NVP Scenario is compared with the initial NVP Scenario (best estimate). A negative (positive) value implies that changing the parameter will decrease (increase) the averted LYLs in the specific scenario relative to averted LYLs in the initial NVP Scenario
  5. dThe relative percent change in averted LYLs between scenarios with NVP risk multipliers of 5% vs. 40% is calculated as (Averted LYLs with 40% NVP risk − Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk)/Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk
  6. eThe initial values for each input parameter in the NVP Scenario are as follows. NVP switching rate with no decay for males females): 4% (2.5%) for ages 24 and below, 2.5% (2.0%) for ages 25–34, 2.5% (1.6%) for age 35–44, 1.3% (1.4%) for ages 45–54, 1.2% (1.4%) for ages 55–64, and 0.6% (1.0%) for ages 65 and above; smoking initiation multiplier = 75%; NVP initiation multiplier = 50%; Smoking cessation multiplier = NVP cessation multiplier = 100%
  7. fNVP switching rate is the annual rate at which current smokers switch to NVPs
  8. gAnnual decay rate is the exponential rate of decline in switching rates over time
  9. hSmoking initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation in the No-NVP Scenario
  10. iNVP initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
  11. jSmoking cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation in the No-NVP Scenario.
  12. kNVP cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
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Population Health Metrics

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