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Table 3 Projected and fitted real mortality rates in 2020 (death by 100,000 people-year) and the corresponding rate ratios (real/projected)

From: A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of mortality rates in Spain: application to the COVID-19 2020 outbreak

 

A: Rate projection for 2020

B: Fitted real rates for 2020

 

Autonomous

Females

Males

Females

Males

Rate ratios (B/A)

Community

Age group < 50 years

1. Andalusia

41 (39; 43)

77 (74; 81)

41 (39; 43)

77 (73; 81)

0.989 (0.929; 1.054)

2. Aragón

38 (35; 40)

69 (64; 73)

35 (32; 38)

64 (59; 70)

0.942 (0.851; 1.020)

3. Asturias

46 (43; 49)

88 (82; 93)

44 (40; 48)

84 (77; 92)

0.965 (0.879; 1.047)

4. Balearic Islands

37 (34; 39)

68 (64; 72)

35 (32; 38)

65 (60; 71)

0.962 (0.877; 1.042)

5. Canary Islands

43 (40; 45)

79 (75; 84)

40 (37; 43)

75 (69; 80)

0.942 (0.864; 1.014)

6. Cantabria

39 (36; 43)

70 (65; 75)

39 (35; 43)

69 (62; 76)

0.983 (0.895; 1.081)

7. Castilla y León

40 (38; 43)

70 (66; 74)

39 (37; 42)

68 (64; 73)

0.976 (0.902; 1.052)

8. Castilla-La Mancha

36 (34; 38)

66 (62; 70)

37 (34; 40)

67 (63; 73)

1.017 (0.945; 1.111)

9. Catalonia

38 (36; 40)

67 (64; 71)

38 (36; 41)

68 (65; 72)

1.015 (0.954; 1.088)

10. Valencian Comm.

41 (39; 43)

75 (71; 79)

41 (39; 44)

76 (71; 80)

1.006 (0.943; 1.080)

11. Extremadura

38 (35; 41)

73 (69; 78)

36 (32; 39)

69 (63; 75)

0.943 (0.850; 1.023)

12. Galicia

44 (41; 47)

87 (82; 92)

39 (36; 43)

78 (72; 84)

0.899 (0.812; 0.982)

13. Madrid

34 (32; 35)

56 (53; 59)

33 (32; 35)

56 (53; 59)

0.998 (0.935; 1.070)

14. Murcia

39 (36; 41)

71 (67; 76)

38 (35; 41)

70 (65; 75)

0.980 (0.903; 1.061)

15. Navarra

34 (31; 37)

61 (57; 66)

32 (29; 36)

58 (52; 64)

0.954 (0.854; 1.040)

16. Basque Country

40 (38; 43)

70 (66; 74)

39 (36; 42)

68 (63; 73)

0.969 (0.893; 1.045)

17. La Rioja

37 (33; 40)

65 (59; 71)

36 (32; 41)

64 (57; 71)

0.982 (0.887; 1.088)

 

Age group from 50 to 64 years

1. Andalusia

301 (290; 314)

706 (679; 734)

342 (325; 360)

800 (760; 841)

1.132 (1.068; 1.200)

2. Aragón

274 (261; 287)

620 (594; 647)

309 (288; 331)

699 (653; 748)

1.128 (1.047; 1.215)

3. Asturias

322 (308; 338)

768 (736; 804)

357 (333; 383)

850 (794; 910)

1.105 (1.026; 1.190)

4. Balearic Islands

288 (272; 303)

617 (587; 646)

293 (270; 316)

627 (582; 675)

1.018 (0.938; 1.102)

5. Canary Islands

335 (320; 350)

703 (673; 732)

338 (317; 360)

709 (667; 754)

1.009 (0.942; 1.080)

6. Cantabria

296 (280; 313)

683 (651; 717)

305 (278; 333)

704 (646; 765)

1.030 (0.940; 1.124)

7. Castilla y León

267 (256; 279)

603 (579; 628)

321 (303; 342)

724 (683; 768)

1.203 (1.126; 1.286)

8. Castilla-La Mancha

255 (244; 268)

590 (566; 617)

315 (295; 336)

727 (684; 775)

1.234 (1.151; 1.325)

9. Catalonia

275 (265; 286)

628 (605; 653)

333 (316; 351)

759 (721; 799)

1.208 (1.139; 1.282)

10. Valencian Comm.

299 (287; 313)

681 (653; 712)

333 (316; 352)

758 (719; 800)

1.113 (1.044; 1.184)

11. Extremadura

281 (267; 295)

686 (655; 716)

318 (296; 342)

776 (724; 832)

1.132 (1.050; 1.222)

12. Galicia

293 (281; 306)

727 (699; 758)

307 (289; 326)

762 (718; 808)

1.048 (0.981; 1.119)

13. Madrid

258 (248; 268)

541 (520; 563)

322 (305; 340)

675 (641; 712)

1.248 (1.174; 1.327)

14. Murcia

270 (257; 284)

628 (600; 656)

299 (278; 321)

695 (649; 744)

1.107 (1.027; 1.193)

15. Navarra

261 (246; 276)

542 (515; 570)

311 (285; 340)

647 (594; 704)

1.193 (1.092; 1.308)

16. Basque Country

286 (274; 299)

645 (619; 671)

304 (285; 323)

684 (644; 728)

1.061 (0.991; 1.135)

17. La Rioja

268 (250; 287)

594 (561; 629)

317 (284; 353)

702 (635; 778)

1.182 (1.067; 1.316)

 

Age group from 65 to 74 years

1. Andalusia

880 (847; 911)

1969 (1898; 2038)

970 (942; 1000)

2172 (2110; 2237)

1.102 (1.056; 1.151)

2. Aragón

727 (695; 760)

1720 (1650; 1792)

916 (870; 965)

2166 (2062; 2274)

1.259 (1.185; 1.338)

3. Asturias

772 (738; 807)

1927 (1848; 2007)

913 (866; 961)

2278 (2169; 2392)

1.181 (1.112; 1.255)

4. Balearic Islands

763 (727; 800)

1680 (1607; 1753)

794 (746; 844)

1748 (1648; 1853)

1.041 (0.972; 1.115)

5. Canary Islands

902 (865; 939)

1845 (1773; 1918)

948 (906; 991)

1938 (1855; 2024)

1.050 (0.994; 1.110)

6. Cantabria

719 (682; 759)

1791 (1709; 1878)

803 (746; 863)

1999 (1866; 2137)

1.116 (1.032; 1.206)

7. Castilla y León

691 (664; 720)

1615 (1554; 1679)

884 (848; 920)

2065 (1986; 2146)

1.280 (1.215; 1.347)

8. Castilla-La Mancha

725 (695; 757)

1653 (1588; 1722)

1020 (975; 1067)

2325 (2227; 2427)

1.408 (1.331; 1.489)

9. Catalonia

711 (685; 737)

1677 (1618; 1736)

901 (874; 930)

2125 (2063; 2190)

1.268 (1.214; 1.325)

10. Valencian Comm.

796 (766; 826)

1804 (1738; 1869)

882 (853; 913)

1999 (1934; 2065)

1.108 (1.058; 1.160)

11. Extremadura

790 (755; 827)

1989 (1907; 2073)

950 (898; 1004)

2391 (2269; 2518)

1.201 (1.128; 1.280)

12. Galicia

732 (704; 761)

1802 (1735; 1870)

750 (721; 781)

1846 (1776; 1919)

1.025 (0.974; 1.078)

13. Madrid

650 (626; 674)

1484 (1430; 1539)

928 (899; 959)

2119 (2054; 2187)

1.428 (1.365; 1.495)

14. Murcia

784 (748; 820)

1752 (1676; 1826)

869 (822; 918)

1942 (1842; 2045)

1.108 (1.040; 1.182)

15. Navarra

651 (616; 687)

1544 (1472; 1619)

743 (688; 801)

1763 (1641; 1891)

1.142 (1.054; 1.238)

16. Basque Country

672 (645; 700)

1670 (1606; 1734)

753 (720; 787)

1869 (1792; 1950)

1.120 (1.062; 1.182)

17. La Rioja

674 (632; 719)

1590 (1506; 1680)

900 (818; 990)

2124 (1943; 2319)

1.335 (1.211; 1.473)

 

Age group of 75 or more years

1. Andalusia

6594 (5898; 7480)

8101 (7245; 9189)

7218 (7070; 7369)

8860 (8677; 9047)

1.093 (0.963; 1.223)

2. Aragón

6476 (5790; 7349)

8135 (7273; 9231)

7859 (7659; 8063)

9862 (9609; 10122)

1.212 (1.067; 1.359)

3. Asturias

6750 (6034; 7660)

8652 (7733; 9819)

7878 (7672; 8090)

10093 (9825; 10367)

1.166 (1.026; 1.307)

4. Balearic Islands

6080 (5434; 6901)

7229 (6460; 8206)

6232 (6035; 6435)

7410 (7173; 7654)

1.025 (0.901; 1.150)

5. Canary Islands

5707 (5103; 6475)

6957 (6220; 7893)

5763 (5608; 5923)

7022 (6832; 7218)

1.010 (0.889; 1.131)

6. Cantabria

6407 (5724; 7274)

8326 (7438; 9454)

6824 (6593; 7062)

8865 (8562; 9178)

1.065 (0.935; 1.196)

7. Castilla y León

6219 (5561; 7056)

7851 (7020; 8908)

7943 (7768; 8122)

10024 (9802; 10251)

1.280 (1.127; 1.433)

8. Castilla-La Mancha

6801 (6081; 7716)

8217 (7347; 9323)

8961 (8751; 9176)

10831 (10576; 11092)

1.319 (1.161; 1.478)

9. Catalonia

6154 (5505; 6980)

7658 (6850; 8686)

7694 (7538; 7854)

9570 (9374; 9770)

1.250 (1.101; 1.399)

10. Valencian Comm.

6204 (5550; 7038)

7499 (6708; 8507)

6823 (6676; 6973)

8250 (8072; 8432)

1.099 (0.968; 1.230)

11. Extremadura

6753 (6037; 7663)

8359 (7472; 9486)

7644 (7435; 7858)

9456 (9195; 9724)

1.131 (0.995; 1.268)

12. Galicia

6137 (5490; 6961)

7578 (6778; 8595)

6395 (6251; 6542)

7892 (7714; 8076)

1.042 (0.918; 1.166)

13. Madrid

5380 (4812; 6103)

6827 (6106; 7745)

7493 (7337; 7652)

9516 (9317; 9719)

1.394 (1.227; 1.561)

14. Murcia

6521 (5830; 7400)

7882 (7046; 8945)

7151 (6950; 7357)

8643 (8399; 8895)

1.096 (0.964; 1.229)

15. Navarra

6207 (5544; 7047)

7766 (6937; 8819)

7088 (6853; 7330)

8868 (8570; 9174)

1.142 (1.003; 1.283)

16. Basque Country

5873 (5252; 6662)

7700 (6886; 8735)

6511 (6357; 6670)

8530 (8326; 8740)

1.109 (0.977; 1.242)

17. La Rioja

6290 (5610; 7149)

8101 (7226; 9209)

7343 (7042; 7655)

9458 (9067; 9863)

1.167 (1.023; 1.316)