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Table 2 Average cross validation error for single hold-out strata in all-cause, pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality by age in China, 1996–2015

From: Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis

Age

Absolute error in \(_{x}q_{0}\) per 1000 livebirths

xq0 (range)

Log quadratic with k =0

Log quadratic with estimated k

Standard\(^{\ddagger }\)

All cause\(^{\dagger }\)

 0–6 days (\(_{6d}q_{0}\))

1.92

1.72

6.47

1.3–29.7

 0–27 days (\(_{27d}q_{0}\))

1.99

0.00

0.00

1.9–38.0

 0–5 months (\(_{5mo}q_{0}\))

1.03

0.68

2.68

2.6–55.3

 0–11 months (\(_{11mo}q_{0}\))

0.75

0.81

3.21

2.9–62.4

 0–23 months (\(_{23mo}q_{0}\))

0.43

0.60

3.00

3.2–68.4

 0–59 months (\(_{59mo}q_{0}\))

0.00

0.00

0.00

3.6–76.7

Pneumonia-specific*

 0–6 days (\(_{6d}q_{0,c}\))

0.65

0.50

0.43

0.0–3.5

 0–27 days (\(_{27d}q_{0,c}\))

0.71

0.00

0.00

0.0–6.9

 0–5 months (\(_{5mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.37

0.21

1.04

0.1–16.0

 0–11 months (\(_{11mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.26

0.20

1.21

0.1–20.0

 0–23 months (\(_{23mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.11

0.10

1.08

0.2–22.9

 0–59 months (\(_{59mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.2–24.0

Injury-specific**

 0–6 days (\(_{6d}q_{0,c}\))

0.23

0.16

0.29

0.0–4.4

 0–27 days (\(_{27d}q_{0,c}\))

0.34

0.00

0.00

0.0–4.7

 0–5 months (\(_{5mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.27

0.14

0.23

0.0–6.1

 0–11 months (\(_{11mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.19

0.16

0.17

0.0–6.5

 0–23 months (\(_{23mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.14

0.14

0.22

0.1–7.4

 0–59 months (\(_{59mo}q_{0,c}\))

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.3–11.9

  1. Error shown as average absolute difference between estimated and observed \(_{x}q_{0}\) and \(_{x}q_{0,c}\)
  2. \({\ddagger }\)Based on constant mortality daily/monthly rate across age within 0–27 days and 1–59 months
  3. \(\dagger\) \(k\) matched to all-cause neonatal mortality
  4. *k matched to pneumonia-specific neonatal mortality
  5. **k matched to injury-specific neonatal mortality