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Table 5 Most likely scenario counterfactual assumptions, South Sudan (2013–2018)

From: A method for small-area estimation of population mortality in settings affected by crises

Variable Counterfactual assumptions Notes
Proportion of IDPs The proportion of IDPs in each county would have been equal to the mean total across South Sudan in Jan 2012–Nov 2013, multiplied by the county’s mean percent share of total IDPs during Dec 2013–Apr 2018 Assume that the relative scale of internal displacement during the war reflects each county’s general potential for displacement
Accordingly, in the counterfactual denominator IDPs are ‘returned’ to their counties of origin pro rata to the assumption
Same number of IDPs in Pibor county as mean of 2012–2013 Assume conflict in Pibor County would have continued, as it pre-dated the current civil war
Incidence of armed conflict events Mean of 2012–2013 level within each county, or actual level, whichever is lower Pre-crisis baseline
Incidence of attacks against aid workers Mean of 2012–2013 level within each county, or actual level, whichever is lower Pre-crisis baseline
Terms of trade purchasing power index Mean of 2012–2013 levels per state Pre-crisis baseline
Uptake of measles routine vaccination On an annual basis, no lower than the mean of 2012–2013 levels per county Assumption preserves any improvements in vaccination coverage observed during the crisis period in any county
Measles incidence Mean of 2012–2013 level within each county, or actual level, whichever is lower Pre-crisis baseline