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Table 7 Predictive validity measures for CODEm results for several selected causes of death

From: Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm

Cause Model RMSE (in-sample) RMSE (test 2) Trend test (in-sample) Trend test (test 2) Coverage (in-sample) Coverage (test 2)
Cardiovascular disease (male) Ensemble 0.123 0.290 0.764 0.699 0.993 0.853
  Best component model 0.122 0.292 0.764 0.693 0.992 0.822
Cardiovascular disease (female) Ensemble 0.162 0.304 0.750 0.698 0.993 0.903
  Best component model 0.162 0.305 0.751 0.707 0.993 0.877
Maternal mortality Ensemble 0.368 0.626 0.739 0.665 0.992 0.973
  Best component model 0.369 0.636 0.737 0.663 0.992 0.969
Cervical cancer Ensemble 0.528 0.944 0.667 0.593 0.988 0.938
  Best component model 0.489 0.951 0.678 0.587 0.982 0.912
Breast cancer (female) Ensemble 0.438 1.105 0.678 0.572 0.985 0.923
  Best component model 0.428 1.129 0.675 0.570 0.981 0.875
Lung cancer (male) Ensemble 0.359 0.769 0.714 0.599 0.993 0.841
  Best component model 0.330 0.759 0.738 0.617 0.993 0.800
Lung cancer (female) Ensemble 0.383 0.734 0.705 0.580 0.995 0.932
  Best component model 0.371 0.756 0.738 0.597 0.994 0.897