Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 3 Example of series effect on health outcome modeling

From: Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015

  Series Child mortality (5q0) First-differences
    Adult mortality, female (45q15) Adult mortality, male (45q15)
Original series IMF ID -0.480 (-0.495, -0.464) -0.286 (-0.299, -0.273) -0.278 (-0.289, -0.266)
  Penn ID -0.389 (-0.402, -0.377) -0.252 (-0.262, -0.242) -0.235 (-0.244, -0.226)
  WB ID -0.490 (-0.505, -0.474) -0.288 (-0.301, -0.276) -0.273 (-0.285, -0.261)
  WB USD -0.331 (-0.342, -0.321) -0.200 (-0.208, -0.192) -0.185 (-0.193, -0.178)
  IMF USD -0.378 (-0.390, -0.367) -0.215 (-0.225, -0.205) -0.214 (-0.223, -0.205)
  UNSTAT USD -0.306 (-0.315, -0.297) -0.185 (-0.193, -0.178) -0.173 (-0.180, -0.166)
Completed series IMF ID -0.390 (-0.402, -0.378) -0.244 (-0.253, -0.235) -0.227 (-0.235, -0.219)
  Penn ID -0.371 (-0.383, -0.359) -0.239 (-0.248, -0.231) -0.224 (-0.232, -0.216)
  WB ID -0.377 (-0.389, -0.365) -0.239 (-0.248, -0.230) -0.222 (-0.230, -0.214)
  WB USD -0.324 (-0.333, -0.315) -0.188 (-0.195, -0.181) -0.178 (-0.185, -0.172)
  IMF USD -0.324 (-0.333, -0.315) -0.189 (-0.196, -0.182) -0.179 (-0.186, -0.173)
  UNSTAT USD -0.320 (-0.330, -0.311) -0.185 (-0.192, -0.178) -0.175 (-0.182, -0.169)
  IHME ID -0.386 (-0.398, -0.374) -0.245 (-0.254, -0.236) -0.229 (-0.237, -0.221)
  IHME USD -0.324 (-0.334, -0.315) -0.189 (-0.196, -0.182) -0.179 (-0.185, -0.172)
  Series Child mortality (5q0) Beck and Katz
    Adult mortality, female (45q15) Adult mortality, male (45q15)
Original series IMF ID -0.507 (-0.524, -0.491) -0.307 (-0.321, -0.293) -0.287 (-0.300, -0.274)
  Penn ID -0.399 (-0.413, -0.386) -0.272 (-0.283, -0.262) -0.244 (-0.254, -0.234)
  WB ID -0.509 (-0.526, -0.492) -0.303 (-0.316, -0.289) -0.282 (-0.295, -0.269)
  WB USD -0.347 (-0.358, -0.336) -0.213 (-0.222, -0.204) -0.194 (-0.203, -0.186)
  IMF USD -0.403 (-0.416, -0.391) -0.233 (-0.244, -0.222) -0.223 (-0.233, -0.213)
  UNSTAT USD -0.326 (-0.336, -0.315) -0.201 (-0.209, -0.192) -0.183 (-0.191, -0.176)
Completed series IMF ID -0.412 (-0.426, -0.399) -0.262 (-0.272, -0.252) -0.239 (-0.249, -0.230)
  Penn ID -0.390 (-0.403, -0.377) -0.260 (-0.269, -0.250) -0.238 (-0.247, -0.229)
  WB ID -0.397 (-0.411, -0.384) -0.256 (-0.265, -0.246) -0.234 (-0.243, -0.225)
  WB USD -0.344 (-0.354, -0.333) -0.202 (-0.210, -0.194) -0.189 (-0.196, -0.181)
  IMF USD -0.344 (-0.354, -0.334) -0.204 (-0.212, -0.196) -0.190 (-0.197, -0.183)
  UNSTAT USD -0.338 (-0.349, -0.328) -0.199 (-0.206, -0.191) -0.185 (-0.192, -0.177)
  IHME ID -0.408 (-0.421, -0.395) -0.264 (-0.274, -0.255) -0.242 (-0.251, -0.233)
  IHME USD -0.344 (-0.354, -0.334) -0.203 (-0.211, -0.195) -0.189 (-0.196, -0.182)
  1. We modeled under-5 mortality, adult female mortality, and adult male mortality from 1970 to 2010 as a function of log income from each of the different series, both in their original forms and completed forms. The Beck and Katz model includes a one-year lag of the outcome variable as a predictor variable. Both models control for female educational attainment and a three-year lag on HIV seroprevalence.