Skip to main content

Table 3 Example of series effect on health outcome modeling

From: Developing a comprehensive time series of GDP per capita for 210 countries from 1950 to 2015

 

Series

Child mortality (5q0)

First-differences

   

Adult mortality, female (45q15)

Adult mortality, male (45q15)

Original series

IMF ID

-0.480 (-0.495, -0.464)

-0.286 (-0.299, -0.273)

-0.278 (-0.289, -0.266)

 

Penn ID

-0.389 (-0.402, -0.377)

-0.252 (-0.262, -0.242)

-0.235 (-0.244, -0.226)

 

WB ID

-0.490 (-0.505, -0.474)

-0.288 (-0.301, -0.276)

-0.273 (-0.285, -0.261)

 

WB USD

-0.331 (-0.342, -0.321)

-0.200 (-0.208, -0.192)

-0.185 (-0.193, -0.178)

 

IMF USD

-0.378 (-0.390, -0.367)

-0.215 (-0.225, -0.205)

-0.214 (-0.223, -0.205)

 

UNSTAT USD

-0.306 (-0.315, -0.297)

-0.185 (-0.193, -0.178)

-0.173 (-0.180, -0.166)

Completed series

IMF ID

-0.390 (-0.402, -0.378)

-0.244 (-0.253, -0.235)

-0.227 (-0.235, -0.219)

 

Penn ID

-0.371 (-0.383, -0.359)

-0.239 (-0.248, -0.231)

-0.224 (-0.232, -0.216)

 

WB ID

-0.377 (-0.389, -0.365)

-0.239 (-0.248, -0.230)

-0.222 (-0.230, -0.214)

 

WB USD

-0.324 (-0.333, -0.315)

-0.188 (-0.195, -0.181)

-0.178 (-0.185, -0.172)

 

IMF USD

-0.324 (-0.333, -0.315)

-0.189 (-0.196, -0.182)

-0.179 (-0.186, -0.173)

 

UNSTAT USD

-0.320 (-0.330, -0.311)

-0.185 (-0.192, -0.178)

-0.175 (-0.182, -0.169)

 

IHME ID

-0.386 (-0.398, -0.374)

-0.245 (-0.254, -0.236)

-0.229 (-0.237, -0.221)

 

IHME USD

-0.324 (-0.334, -0.315)

-0.189 (-0.196, -0.182)

-0.179 (-0.185, -0.172)

 

Series

Child mortality (5q0)

Beck and Katz

   

Adult mortality, female (45q15)

Adult mortality, male (45q15)

Original series

IMF ID

-0.507 (-0.524, -0.491)

-0.307 (-0.321, -0.293)

-0.287 (-0.300, -0.274)

 

Penn ID

-0.399 (-0.413, -0.386)

-0.272 (-0.283, -0.262)

-0.244 (-0.254, -0.234)

 

WB ID

-0.509 (-0.526, -0.492)

-0.303 (-0.316, -0.289)

-0.282 (-0.295, -0.269)

 

WB USD

-0.347 (-0.358, -0.336)

-0.213 (-0.222, -0.204)

-0.194 (-0.203, -0.186)

 

IMF USD

-0.403 (-0.416, -0.391)

-0.233 (-0.244, -0.222)

-0.223 (-0.233, -0.213)

 

UNSTAT USD

-0.326 (-0.336, -0.315)

-0.201 (-0.209, -0.192)

-0.183 (-0.191, -0.176)

Completed series

IMF ID

-0.412 (-0.426, -0.399)

-0.262 (-0.272, -0.252)

-0.239 (-0.249, -0.230)

 

Penn ID

-0.390 (-0.403, -0.377)

-0.260 (-0.269, -0.250)

-0.238 (-0.247, -0.229)

 

WB ID

-0.397 (-0.411, -0.384)

-0.256 (-0.265, -0.246)

-0.234 (-0.243, -0.225)

 

WB USD

-0.344 (-0.354, -0.333)

-0.202 (-0.210, -0.194)

-0.189 (-0.196, -0.181)

 

IMF USD

-0.344 (-0.354, -0.334)

-0.204 (-0.212, -0.196)

-0.190 (-0.197, -0.183)

 

UNSTAT USD

-0.338 (-0.349, -0.328)

-0.199 (-0.206, -0.191)

-0.185 (-0.192, -0.177)

 

IHME ID

-0.408 (-0.421, -0.395)

-0.264 (-0.274, -0.255)

-0.242 (-0.251, -0.233)

 

IHME USD

-0.344 (-0.354, -0.334)

-0.203 (-0.211, -0.195)

-0.189 (-0.196, -0.182)

  1. We modeled under-5 mortality, adult female mortality, and adult male mortality from 1970 to 2010 as a function of log income from each of the different series, both in their original forms and completed forms. The Beck and Katz model includes a one-year lag of the outcome variable as a predictor variable. Both models control for female educational attainment and a three-year lag on HIV seroprevalence.