Assessment of possible impact of a health promotion program in Korea from health risk trends in a longitudinally observed cohort

Table 4 Estimated risk transition probability with and without intervention and medical utilization.

	Behavioral health risk measured at two times (T1 and T2)	T1-T2 Utilization Cost Ratio ^b				KNHIC population without intervention KN HIC population with a simulated intervention at minimal level ^a
			Risk state at T3			Risk state at T3
T1	T2		Low	Medium	High	Low	Medium	High
Low	Low	1.00	0.81	0.15	0.04	0.97	0.03	0.00^c
	Medium	1.14	0.53	0.34	0.13	0.69	0.11	0.20
	High	1.58	0.38	0.32	0.30	0.65	0.34	0.01
Medium	Low	1.16	0.60	0.30	0.10	0.65	0.33	0.02
	Medium	1.23	0.35	0.44	0.21	0.39	0.32	0.29
	High	1.52	0.23	0.35	0.42	0.05	0.73	0.22
High	Low	1.51	0.46	0.31	0.23	0.34	0.65	0.01
	Medium	1.52	0.25	0.38	0.37	0.34	0.65	0.01
	High	1.79	0.14	0.27	0.59	0.16	0.30	0.54

^aRisk transition probability was estimated using Markov model order 2, adjusted for age and gender distribution of KNHIC.
^bComparing average cost in each T1-T2 risk state pair (e.g. high-medium) to that of the low-low (T1-T2).
^cAll probabilities were rounded off at the 3^rd decimal place (i.e.0.0014).

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