A method for reclassifying cause of death in cases categorized as “event of undetermined intent”

Andreev, Evgeny; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Pridemore, William Alex; Nikitina, Svetlana Yu.

doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0048-y

Population Health Metrics

Table 3 Distribution of deaths with known causes by actual and predicted cause (per 1000)

From: A method for reclassifying cause of death in cases categorized as “event of undetermined intent”

	Male					Female
	Actual cause				Share of agreement	Actual cause				Share of agreement
Predicted cause	Non-transport accidents	Suicide	Homicide	Total	Share of agreement	Non-transport accidents	Suicide	Homicide	Total	Share of agreement
All cases
Non-transport accidents	502	7	2	511	0.98	516	7	5	527	0.98
Suicide	23	208	7	237	0.87	51	153	22	227	0.68
Homicide	84	25	143	252	0.57	79	14	153	246	0.62
Total	609	239	152	1000		645	175	180	1000
Share of agreement	0.82	0.87	0.94		0.85	0.80	0.88	0.85		0.82
ECP ≥ 0.5
Non-transport accidents	506	7	2	515	0.98	526	5	3	534	0.98
Suicide	22	209	7	238	0.88	50	157	22	229	0.69
Homicide	82	23	142	247	0.58	71	12	153	237	0.65
Total	610	239	151	1000		647	174	179	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.83	0.87	0.94		0.86	0.81	0.90	0.86		0.84
ECP ≥ 0.6
Non-transport accidents	516	7	2	524	0.98	540	4	3	546	0.99
Suicide	22	214	6	242	0.88	45	161	22	228	0.71
Homicide	72	21	140	233	0.60	63	10	153	226	0.68
Total	610	242	148	1000		647	175	178	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.85	0.89	0.94		0.87	0.83	0.92	0.86		0.85
ECP ≥ 0.7
Non-transport accidents	539	5	2	545	0.99	567	3	2	573	0.99
Suicide	21	226	7	254	0.89	34	163	22	219	0.74
Homicide	53	16	131	201	0.65	51	7	149	208	0.72
Total	613	248	139	1000		653	173	174	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.88	0.91	0.94		0.89	0.87	0.94	0.86		0.88
ECP ≥ 0.75
Non-transport accidents	554	5	2	561	0.99	588	3	2	594	0.99
Suicide	21	234	7	262	0.89	25	160	21	206	0.78
Homicide	42	14	122	177	0.69	46	7	148	200	0.74
Total	617	252	130	1000		659	170	172	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.90	0.93	0.94		0.91	0.89	0.94	0.86		0.90
ECP ≥ 0.8
Non-transport accidents	575	4	1	581	0.99	621	3	2	626	0.99
Suicide	20	243	7	270	0.90	17	149	18	184	0.81
Homicide	29	11	109	150	0.73	38	6	145	189	0.77
Total	625	258	117	1000		676	158	166	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.92	0.94	0.93		0.93	0.92	0.94	0.88		0.92
ECP ≥ 0.85
Non-transport accidents	607	3	1	612	0.99	696	3	2	701	0.99
Suicide	18	252	6	276	0.91	9	108	12	130	0.84
Homicide	16	8	87	112	0.78	27	6	136	169	0.81
Total	642	263	95	1000		733	117	150	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.95	0.96	0.92		0.95	0.95	0.93	0.91		0.94
ECP ≥ 0.9
Non-transport accidents	667	3	1	671	0.99	843	3	2	848	0.99
Suicide	15	254	5	275	0.93	2	34	3	40	0.86
Homicide	5	3	45	54	0.84	11	3	98	112	0.87
Total	687	261	52	1000		857	40	103	1000
Share of correct predictions	0.97	0.98	0.87		0.97	0.98	0.85	0.95		0.97

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ISSN: 1478-7954

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