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Table 3 Distribution of deaths with known causes by actual and predicted cause (per 1000)

From: A method for reclassifying cause of death in cases categorized as “event of undetermined intent”

  Male Female  
  Actual cause Share of agreement Actual cause Share of agreement
Predicted cause Non-transport accidents Suicide Homicide Total Non-transport accidents Suicide Homicide Total
All cases
Non-transport accidents 502 7 2 511 0.98 516 7 5 527 0.98
Suicide 23 208 7 237 0.87 51 153 22 227 0.68
Homicide 84 25 143 252 0.57 79 14 153 246 0.62
Total 609 239 152 1000   645 175 180 1000  
Share of agreement 0.82 0.87 0.94   0.85 0.80 0.88 0.85   0.82
ECP ≥ 0.5
Non-transport accidents 506 7 2 515 0.98 526 5 3 534 0.98
Suicide 22 209 7 238 0.88 50 157 22 229 0.69
Homicide 82 23 142 247 0.58 71 12 153 237 0.65
Total 610 239 151 1000   647 174 179 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.83 0.87 0.94   0.86 0.81 0.90 0.86   0.84
ECP ≥ 0.6
Non-transport accidents 516 7 2 524 0.98 540 4 3 546 0.99
Suicide 22 214 6 242 0.88 45 161 22 228 0.71
Homicide 72 21 140 233 0.60 63 10 153 226 0.68
Total 610 242 148 1000   647 175 178 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.85 0.89 0.94   0.87 0.83 0.92 0.86   0.85
ECP ≥ 0.7
Non-transport accidents 539 5 2 545 0.99 567 3 2 573 0.99
Suicide 21 226 7 254 0.89 34 163 22 219 0.74
Homicide 53 16 131 201 0.65 51 7 149 208 0.72
Total 613 248 139 1000   653 173 174 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.88 0.91 0.94   0.89 0.87 0.94 0.86   0.88
ECP ≥ 0.75
Non-transport accidents 554 5 2 561 0.99 588 3 2 594 0.99
Suicide 21 234 7 262 0.89 25 160 21 206 0.78
Homicide 42 14 122 177 0.69 46 7 148 200 0.74
Total 617 252 130 1000   659 170 172 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.90 0.93 0.94   0.91 0.89 0.94 0.86   0.90
ECP ≥ 0.8
Non-transport accidents 575 4 1 581 0.99 621 3 2 626 0.99
Suicide 20 243 7 270 0.90 17 149 18 184 0.81
Homicide 29 11 109 150 0.73 38 6 145 189 0.77
Total 625 258 117 1000   676 158 166 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.92 0.94 0.93   0.93 0.92 0.94 0.88   0.92
ECP ≥ 0.85           
Non-transport accidents 607 3 1 612 0.99 696 3 2 701 0.99
Suicide 18 252 6 276 0.91 9 108 12 130 0.84
Homicide 16 8 87 112 0.78 27 6 136 169 0.81
Total 642 263 95 1000   733 117 150 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.95 0.96 0.92   0.95 0.95 0.93 0.91   0.94
ECP ≥ 0.9
Non-transport accidents 667 3 1 671 0.99 843 3 2 848 0.99
Suicide 15 254 5 275 0.93 2 34 3 40 0.86
Homicide 5 3 45 54 0.84 11 3 98 112 0.87
Total 687 261 52 1000   857 40 103 1000  
Share of correct predictions 0.97 0.98 0.87   0.97 0.98 0.85 0.95   0.97