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Table 2 Logistic regression on birth by age, time, and nationality, females ages 15–49, Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, South Africa

From: Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 – 2013

  Model M1 Model M2
  Odds ratio 95 % CI p-value Odds ratio 95 % CI p-value
Mother's age       
 15–19 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] . 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 20–24 1.276 [1.177, 1.384] <0.001 1.173 [1.078, 1.277] < 0.001
 25–29 1.317 [1.211, 1.433] < 0.001 1.189 [1.088, 1.299] < 0.001
 30–34 1.228 [1.123, 1.342] < 0.001 1.128 [1.027, 1.240] 0.012
 35–39 1.013 [0.915, 1.121] 0.809 0.926 [0.831, 1.031] 0.159
 40–44 0.489 [0.427, 0.562] < 0.001 0.404 [0.348, 0.469] < 0.001
 45–49 0.230 [0.184, 0.286] < 0.001 0.140 [0.107, 0.183] < 0.001
Time period       
 1993–1996 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] . 1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 1997–2000 0.926 [0.853, 1.005] 0.065 0.961 [0.882, 1.046] 0.357
 2001–2003 0.806 [0.737, 0.882] < 0.001 0.842 [0.767, 0.924] < 0.001
 2004–2007 0.926 [0.856, 1.002] 0.056 0.982 [0.904, 1.067] 0.674
 2008–2011 0.880 [0.807, 0.958] 0.003 1.001 [0.914, 1.095] 0.99
 2012–2013 0.786 [0.701, 0.880] < 0.001 0.890 [0.789, 1.003] 0.056
Mother's age X time period      
 20–24 X 1997–2000 1.004 [0.895, 1.126] 0.951 1.006 [0.897, 1.128] 0.918
 20–24 X 2001–2003 1.025 [0.904, 1.162] 0.704 1.031 [0.909, 1.168] 0.636
 20–24 X 2004–2007 0.965 [0.863, 1.078] 0.523 0.982 [0.879, 1.097] 0.747
 20–24 X 2008–2011 1.030 [0.916, 1.159] 0.62 1.029 [0.915, 1.157] 0.636
 20–24 X 2012–2013 1.056 [0.906, 1.230] 0.487 1.056 [0.906, 1.230] 0.488
 25–29 X 1997–2000 1.032 [0.916, 1.162] 0.604 1.046 [0.929, 1.178] 0.454
 25–29 X 2001–2003 1.018 [0.894, 1.160] 0.788 1.036 [0.910, 1.180] 0.595
 25–29 X 2004–2007 0.992 [0.884, 1.114] 0.893 1.016 [0.906, 1.140] 0.782
 25–29 X 2008–2011 0.965 [0.853, 1.092] 0.573 0.983 [0.869, 1.112] 0.782
 25–29 X 2012–2013 0.899 [0.766, 1.055] 0.193 0.919 [0.783, 1.078] 0.299
 30–34 X 1997–2000 1.000 [0.882, 1.135] 0.998 0.998 [0.880, 1.132] 0.974
 30–34 X 2001–2003 0.901 [0.783, 1.037] 0.147 0.902 [0.784, 1.038] 0.15
 30–34 X 2004–2007 0.927 [0.819, 1.050] 0.232 0.940 [0.830, 1.063] 0.323
 30–34 X 2008–2011 0.923 [0.809, 1.054] 0.238 0.928 [0.813, 1.059] 0.267
 30–34 X 2012–2013 0.875 [0.737, 1.039] 0.127 0.877 [0.739, 1.041] 0.135
 35–39 X 1997–2000 0.882 [0.764, 1.018] 0.087 0.897 [0.777, 1.036] 0.141
 35–39 X 2001–2003 0.871 [0.744, 1.020] 0.086 0.891 [0.761, 1.043] 0.151
 35–39 X 2004–2007 0.819 [0.711, 0.943] 0.005 0.836 [0.726, 0.962] 0.012
 35–39 X 2008–2011 0.779 [0.669, 0.908] 0.001 0.795 [0.682, 0.926] 0.003
 35–39 X 2012–2013 0.749 [0.612, 0.916] 0.005 0.765 [0.626, 0.936] 0.009
 40–44 X 1997–2000 0.975 [0.802, 1.185] 0.796 0.983 [0.809, 1.196] 0.866
 40–44 X 2001–2003 0.788 [0.629, 0.987] 0.038 0.795 [0.635, 0.997] 0.047
 40–44 X 2004–2007 0.704 [0.577, 0.858] 0.001 0.732 [0.600, 0.892] 0.002
 40–44 X 2008–2011 0.698 [0.564, 0.865] 0.001 0.719 [0.580, 0.891] 0.003
 40–44 X 2012–2013 0.583 [0.435, 0.781] < 0.001 0.603 [0.450, 0.808] 0.001
 45–49 X 1997–2000 0.658 [0.472, 0.916] 0.013 0.657 [0.471, 0.917] 0.013
 45–49 X 2001–2003 0.484 [0.324, 0.722] < 0.001 0.492 [0.329, 0.735] 0.001
 45–49 X 2004–2007 0.227 [0.146, 0.352] < 0.001 0.232 [0.149, 0.361] < 0.001
 45–49 X 2008–2011 0.279 [0.180, 0.432] < 0.001 0.298 [0.192, 0.461] < 0.001
 45–49 X 2012–2013 0.107 [0.043, 0.266] < 0.001 0.091 [0.033, 0.250] < 0.001
Nationality       
 South African     1.000 [1.000, 1.000] .
 Mozambican     1.325 [1.229, 1.429] < 0.001
Mother's age X nationality      
 20–24 X Mozambican     1.285 [1.191, 1.386] < 0.001
 25–29 X Mozambican    1.306 [1.207, 1.414] < 0.001
 30–34 X Mozambican     1.286 [1.182, 1.401] < 0.001
 35–39 X Mozambican    1.245 [1.130, 1.372] < 0.001
 40–44 X Mozambican     1.633 [1.430, 1.866] < 0.001
 45–49 X Mozambican     3.059 [2.360, 3.964] < 0.001
Time period X nationality      
 1997–2000 X Mozambican    0.881 [0.812, 0.955] 0.002
 2001–2003 X Mozambican    0.859 [0.785, 0.940] 0.001
 2004–2007 X Mozambican    0.806 [0.744, 0.873] < 0.001
 2008–2011 X Mozambican    0.661 [0.606, 0.720] < 0.001
 2012–2013 X Mozambican    0.673 [0.602, 0.753] < 0.001
  Parameter    Parameter   
σ2 female 0.03    0.00003   
ρ 0.008    0.000009   
N 337737    337047   
  1. Unit of analysis is person-year, with variables defined at the beginning of each person-year