Table 2 Logistic regression on birth by age, time, and nationality, females ages 15–49, Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, South Africa

Mother's age

 15–19

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 20–24

1.276

[1.177, 1.384]

<0.001

1.173

[1.078, 1.277]

< 0.001

 25–29

1.317

[1.211, 1.433]

< 0.001

1.189

[1.088, 1.299]

< 0.001

 30–34

1.228

[1.123, 1.342]

< 0.001

1.128

[1.027, 1.240]

0.012

 35–39

1.013

[0.915, 1.121]

0.809

0.926

[0.831, 1.031]

0.159

 40–44

0.489

[0.427, 0.562]

< 0.001

0.404

[0.348, 0.469]

< 0.001

 45–49

0.230

[0.184, 0.286]

< 0.001

0.140

[0.107, 0.183]

< 0.001

Time period

 1993–1996

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 1997–2000

0.926

[0.853, 1.005]

0.065

0.961

[0.882, 1.046]

0.357

 2001–2003

0.806

[0.737, 0.882]

< 0.001

0.842

[0.767, 0.924]

< 0.001

 2004–2007

0.926

[0.856, 1.002]

0.056

0.982

[0.904, 1.067]

0.674

 2008–2011

0.880

[0.807, 0.958]

0.003

1.001

[0.914, 1.095]

0.99

 2012–2013

0.786

[0.701, 0.880]

< 0.001

0.890

[0.789, 1.003]

0.056

 20–24 X 1997–2000

1.004

[0.895, 1.126]

0.951

1.006

[0.897, 1.128]

0.918

 20–24 X 2001–2003

1.025

[0.904, 1.162]

0.704

1.031

[0.909, 1.168]

0.636

 20–24 X 2004–2007

0.965

[0.863, 1.078]

0.523

0.982

[0.879, 1.097]

0.747

 20–24 X 2008–2011

1.030

[0.916, 1.159]

0.62

1.029

[0.915, 1.157]

0.636

 20–24 X 2012–2013

1.056

[0.906, 1.230]

0.487

1.056

[0.906, 1.230]

0.488

 25–29 X 1997–2000

1.032

[0.916, 1.162]

0.604

1.046

[0.929, 1.178]

0.454

 25–29 X 2001–2003

1.018

[0.894, 1.160]

0.788

1.036

[0.910, 1.180]

0.595

 25–29 X 2004–2007

0.992

[0.884, 1.114]

0.893

1.016

[0.906, 1.140]

0.782

 25–29 X 2008–2011

0.965

[0.853, 1.092]

0.573

0.983

[0.869, 1.112]

0.782

 25–29 X 2012–2013

0.899

[0.766, 1.055]

0.193

0.919

[0.783, 1.078]

0.299

 30–34 X 1997–2000

1.000

[0.882, 1.135]

0.998

0.998

[0.880, 1.132]

0.974

 30–34 X 2001–2003

0.901

[0.783, 1.037]

0.147

0.902

[0.784, 1.038]

0.15

 30–34 X 2004–2007

0.927

[0.819, 1.050]

0.232

0.940

[0.830, 1.063]

0.323

 30–34 X 2008–2011

0.923

[0.809, 1.054]

0.238

0.928

[0.813, 1.059]

0.267

 30–34 X 2012–2013

0.875

[0.737, 1.039]

0.127

0.877

[0.739, 1.041]

0.135

 35–39 X 1997–2000

0.882

[0.764, 1.018]

0.087

0.897

[0.777, 1.036]

0.141

 35–39 X 2001–2003

0.871

[0.744, 1.020]

0.086

0.891

[0.761, 1.043]

0.151

 35–39 X 2004–2007

0.819

[0.711, 0.943]

0.005

0.836

[0.726, 0.962]

0.012

 35–39 X 2008–2011

0.779

[0.669, 0.908]

0.001

0.795

[0.682, 0.926]

0.003

 35–39 X 2012–2013

0.749

[0.612, 0.916]

0.005

0.765

[0.626, 0.936]

0.009

 40–44 X 1997–2000

0.975

[0.802, 1.185]

0.796

0.983

[0.809, 1.196]

0.866

 40–44 X 2001–2003

0.788

[0.629, 0.987]

0.038

0.795

[0.635, 0.997]

0.047

 40–44 X 2004–2007

0.704

[0.577, 0.858]

0.001

0.732

[0.600, 0.892]

0.002

 40–44 X 2008–2011

0.698

[0.564, 0.865]

0.001

0.719

[0.580, 0.891]

0.003

 40–44 X 2012–2013

0.583

[0.435, 0.781]

< 0.001

0.603

[0.450, 0.808]

0.001

 45–49 X 1997–2000

0.658

[0.472, 0.916]

0.013

0.657

[0.471, 0.917]

0.013

 45–49 X 2001–2003

0.484

[0.324, 0.722]

< 0.001

0.492

[0.329, 0.735]

0.001

 45–49 X 2004–2007

0.227

[0.146, 0.352]

< 0.001

0.232

[0.149, 0.361]

< 0.001

 45–49 X 2008–2011

0.279

[0.180, 0.432]

< 0.001

0.298

[0.192, 0.461]

< 0.001

 45–49 X 2012–2013

0.107

[0.043, 0.266]

< 0.001

0.091

[0.033, 0.250]

< 0.001

Nationality

 South African

1.000

[1.000, 1.000]

.

 Mozambican

1.325

[1.229, 1.429]

< 0.001

 20–24 X Mozambican

1.285

[1.191, 1.386]

< 0.001

1.306

[1.207, 1.414]

< 0.001

 30–34 X Mozambican

1.286

[1.182, 1.401]

< 0.001

1.245

[1.130, 1.372]

< 0.001

 40–44 X Mozambican

1.633

[1.430, 1.866]

< 0.001

 45–49 X Mozambican

3.059

[2.360, 3.964]

< 0.001

0.881

[0.812, 0.955]

0.002

0.859

[0.785, 0.940]

0.001

0.806

[0.744, 0.873]

< 0.001

0.661

[0.606, 0.720]

< 0.001

0.673

[0.602, 0.753]

< 0.001

Parameter

Parameter

σ² _female

0.03

0.00003

ρ

0.008

0.000009

N

337737

337047