Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use

Table 1 Dementia prevalence (cases per 1000 people), Canada, 2011 to 2031, by sex

	2011	Baseline		Sensitivity analyses, ratio (2031:2011)
	2011	2031	Ratio (2031:2011)	Higher Canadian life expectancy^a	Decreased dementia mortality^b	Delayed incidence^c
Number of people with dementia
Total	340,000	674,000	1.98	2.08	2.09	1.10
Males	142,000	291,000	2.05	2.16	2.15	1.13
Females	198,000	383,000	1.93	2.02	2.04	1.07
Prevalence rate (per 1000 people)
Age 40 years and older
Total	20.0	31.0	1.55	1.61	1.63	0.85
Males	17.3	27.6	1.60	1.67	1.68	0.88
Females	22.5	34.1	1.52	1.57	1.59	0.83
Age 80 years and older
Total	177	187	1.06	1.08	1.12	0.62
Males	171	182	1.06	1.09	1.12	0.62
Females	180	191	1.06	1.08	1.12	0.61

^aHigher life expectancy based on projections by Statistics Canada
^b10% lower mortality hazard among those with dementia, relative to baseline relative mortality hazard
^cDelay age-specific incidence of dementia by 5 years, relative to baseline incidence rates

ISSN: 1478-7954