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Table 4 Annual T2DM incidence (per 1000 person-years) projection to 2020 based on various BMI scenarios, 2011–2020

From: Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji

  T2DM incidence (per 1,000 person years) and 95% CI
i-Taukei Indian Fiji
Men Women Men Women
Incidence in 2011a 4.03
(3.50–4.57)
4.67
(4.16–5.18)
6.48
(5.69–7.26)
7.72
(7.00–8.44)
5.02
(4.72–5.31)
Projected to 2020 from period trend onlya 4.95
(4.36–5.54)
5.68
(5.12–6.25)
7.18
(6.35–8.01)
9.08
(8.30–9.86)
5.78
(5.46–6.10)
Projected to 2020 from period and BMI trendsb 5.63
(4.96–6.30)
6.76
(6.13–7.40)
7.99
(7.06–8.92)
9.29
(8.44–10.14)
6.39
(6.04–6.74)
Projected: no BMI change 2011-20b 5.61
(4.94–6.28)
6.49
(5.87–7.11)
7.89
(6.97–8.82)
8.94
(8.11–9.77)
6.10
(5.75–6.44)
Projected from mean weight change to 2020
 Weight loss 2011–2020b
  −1 kg 5.52
(4.86–6.19)
6.39
(5.78–7.00)
7.78
(6.87–8.70)
8.76
(7.94–9.59)
5.93
(5.59–6.27)
  −2 kg 5.45
(4.79–6.11)
6.29
(5.68–6.90)
7.65
(6.74–8.56)
8.59
(7.77–9.40)
5.77
(5.44–6.11)
  −3 kg 5.45
(4.72–5.95)
6.19
(5.58–6.79)
7.53
(6.63–8.43)
8.42
(7.61–9.23)
5.62
(5.29–5.95)
  −4 kg 5.30
(4.64–5.95)
6.09
(5.49–6.69)
7.40
(6.51–8.30)
8.25
(7.45–9.05)
5.46
(5.14–5.79)
 Weight gain 2011–2020b
  +1 kg 5.68
(5.01–6.36)
6.60
(5.97–7.22)
8.05
(7.11–8.98)
9.12
(8.28–9.96)
6.27
(5.92–6.62)
  +2 kg 5.76
(5.08–6.44)
6.70
(6.07–7.33)
8.18
(7.24–9.12)
9.30
(8.45–10.15)
6.44
(6.09–6.80)
  +3 kg 5.84
(5.16–6.53)
6.81
(6.18–7.44)
8.32
(7.37–9.27)
9.49
(8.63–10.35)
6.62
(6.26–6.98)
  +4 kg 5.93
(5.24–6.61)
6.92
(6.28–7.56)
8.46
(7.50–9.41)
9.68
(8.81–10.55)
6.81
(6.44–7.17)
  1. aIncidence for 2011 and 2020 is based on applying the Styblo birth cohort method to prevalence estimates, by sex and ethnicity, age-adjusted
  2. bFrom ethnic-specific Poisson models using survey year, sex, age, and mean BMI