Table 4 Annual T2DM incidence (per 1000 person-years) projection to 2020 based on various BMI scenarios, 2011–2020

Incidence in 2011^a

4.03

(3.50–4.57)

4.67

(4.16–5.18)

6.48

(5.69–7.26)

7.72

(7.00–8.44)

5.02

(4.72–5.31)

Projected to 2020 from period trend only^a

4.95

(4.36–5.54)

5.68

(5.12–6.25)

7.18

(6.35–8.01)

9.08

(8.30–9.86)

5.78

(5.46–6.10)

Projected to 2020 from period and BMI trends^b

5.63

(4.96–6.30)

6.76

(6.13–7.40)

7.99

(7.06–8.92)

9.29

(8.44–10.14)

6.39

(6.04–6.74)

Projected: no BMI change 2011-20^b

5.61

(4.94–6.28)

6.49

(5.87–7.11)

7.89

(6.97–8.82)

8.94

(8.11–9.77)

6.10

(5.75–6.44)

  −1 kg

5.52

(4.86–6.19)

6.39

(5.78–7.00)

7.78

(6.87–8.70)

8.76

(7.94–9.59)

5.93

(5.59–6.27)

  −2 kg

5.45

(4.79–6.11)

6.29

(5.68–6.90)

7.65

(6.74–8.56)

8.59

(7.77–9.40)

5.77

(5.44–6.11)

  −3 kg

5.45

(4.72–5.95)

6.19

(5.58–6.79)

7.53

(6.63–8.43)

8.42

(7.61–9.23)

5.62

(5.29–5.95)

  −4 kg

5.30

(4.64–5.95)

6.09

(5.49–6.69)

7.40

(6.51–8.30)

8.25

(7.45–9.05)

5.46

(5.14–5.79)

  +1 kg

5.68

(5.01–6.36)

6.60

(5.97–7.22)

8.05

(7.11–8.98)

9.12

(8.28–9.96)

6.27

(5.92–6.62)

  +2 kg

5.76

(5.08–6.44)

6.70

(6.07–7.33)

8.18

(7.24–9.12)

9.30

(8.45–10.15)

6.44

(6.09–6.80)

  +3 kg

5.84

(5.16–6.53)

6.81

(6.18–7.44)

8.32

(7.37–9.27)

9.49

(8.63–10.35)

6.62

(6.26–6.98)

  +4 kg

5.93

(5.24–6.61)

6.92

(6.28–7.56)

8.46

(7.50–9.41)

9.68

(8.81–10.55)

6.81

(6.44–7.17)