Table 3 Prior and posterior estimates for cluster sampling coverage survey and SQUEAC conjugate Bayesian analysis
| Â | Final prior coverage estimate | Likelihood coverage estimate | Posterior coverage estimate | Strength of evidence for conflictd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario for prior estimation | Â | Required sample size No. SAM cases (No. villages) | Â | Â | Â |
Cluster sampling coverage survey | – | 96 (46) | – | 25.7% (17.6–33.7%) | – |
Standard uncertainty in prior estimation (prior ±25%) | |||||
 Scenario 1a: broad program implementationa | 55% | 63 (30) | 25.5% (15.4–34.6%) | 34.7% (26.3–43.9%) | Strong (p = 0.0033) |
 Scenario 2a: basic program implementationb | 52% | 63 (31) | 25.5% (16.0–34.4%) | 33.8% (25.8–42.8%) | Strong (p = 0.0076) |
 Scenario 3a: external Implementationc | 42% | 62 (30) | 25.4% (15.2–34.5%) | 30.3% (22.5–39.6%) | Weak (p = 0.1165) |
High uncertainty in prior estimation (prior ±35%) | |||||
 Scenario 1b: broad program Implementationa | 55% | 80 (39) | 25.6% (18.2–31.6%) | 30.0% (22.3–39.3%) | Strong (p = 0.021) |
 Scenario 2b: basic program Implementationb | 52% | 81 (39) | 25.6% (18.2–31.6%) | 29.6% (21.9–38.8%) | Strong (p = 0.0369) |
 Scenario 3b: external Implementationc | 42% | 79 (38) | 25.7% (17.9–32.1%) | 28.2% (20.8–37.3%) | Weak (p = 0.2582) |