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Table 2 Comparison of synthetic Quadrant 1 root-mean-squared prediction errors (RMSPE)

From: Estimating the impact of donor programs on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a synthetic control analysis of child health programs funded by the United States Agency for International Development

Synth models RMSPE
Outcome lags only
1980, 1990, 1998 2.3624
Predictors with lags
TFR, stunting, HIV + 3 lags 0.9203
TFR, stunting, HIV, DPT + 3 lags 0.8477
Clean water and sanitation + 3 lags 1.0187
Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc + 3 lags 1.7597
Polity score + 3 lags 2.0387
Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc + polity score + 3 lags 2.2416
Predictors without lags
TFR, stunting, HIV, DPT 4.5781
Clean water and sanitation 3.9344
Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc 26.7628
Full model
All 10 predictors + 3 lags 0.5969
All 10 predictors + 3 lags (without Chad) 0.6034
Predictor year range
1985–1998 0.6219
1990–1998 0.6438
Quadrant 3
All 10 predictors + 3 lags 0.0618
Non-nested
All 10 predictors + 3 lags 1.1046
  1. With the exception ‘Predictor year range,’ all RSMPE were generated with pre-treatment period 1980–1998