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Table 2 Comparison of synthetic Quadrant 1 root-mean-squared prediction errors (RMSPE)

From: Estimating the impact of donor programs on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries: a synthetic control analysis of child health programs funded by the United States Agency for International Development

Synth models

RMSPE

Outcome lags only

1980, 1990, 1998

2.3624

Predictors with lags

TFR, stunting, HIV + 3 lags

0.9203

TFR, stunting, HIV, DPT + 3 lags

0.8477

Clean water and sanitation + 3 lags

1.0187

Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc + 3 lags

1.7597

Polity score + 3 lags

2.0387

Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc + polity score + 3 lags

2.2416

Predictors without lags

TFR, stunting, HIV, DPT

4.5781

Clean water and sanitation

3.9344

Logged GDP + urbanization + ODApc

26.7628

Full model

All 10 predictors + 3 lags

0.5969

All 10 predictors + 3 lags (without Chad)

0.6034

Predictor year range

1985–1998

0.6219

1990–1998

0.6438

Quadrant 3

All 10 predictors + 3 lags

0.0618

Non-nested

All 10 predictors + 3 lags

1.1046

  1. With the exception ‘Predictor year range,’ all RSMPE were generated with pre-treatment period 1980–1998
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Population Health Metrics

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