China’s fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures

Table 8 Birth and fertility estimates by projection simulation method

Year	TFR in yearbook	Birth estimate (million)	Published births (million)	Estimated TFR
1991	1.97	22.08	22.65	2.02
1992	1.83	20.97	21.25	1.86
1993	1.69	19.68	21.32	1.84
1994	1.56	18.35	21.10	1.79
1995	1.43	16.75	20.63	1.76
1996	1.44	16.79	20.67	1.78
1997	1.46	16.85	20.38	1.76
1998	1.46	16.47	19.91	1.76
1999	1.45	15.97	19.09	1.73
2001	1.20	12.69	17.02	1.61
2002	1.37	14.32	16.47	1.58
2003	1.41	14.42	15.99	1.57
2004	1.45	14.75	15.93	1.57
2005	1.34	13.57	16.17	1.60
2006	1.38	14.04	15.84	1.56
2007	1.45	14.77	15.94	1.57
2008	1.48	15.13	16.08	1.57
2009	1.37	14.19	16.15	1.56
2011	1.03	11.20	16.04	1.48
2012	1.25	13.59	16.35	1.50
2013	1.22	13.37	16.40	1.50
2014	1.26	13.87	16.87	1.53
2015	1.05	11.42	16.55	1.52
2016	1.24	13.53	17.86	1.64
2017	1.58	16.88	17.23	1.61
2018	1.50	15.66	15.23	1.45
2019	1.47	14.97	14.65	1.44
2020	1.30	12.86	12.00	1.21
2021			10.62	1.07

The “TFR in Yearbook” are obtained by summing over the age-specific fertility rates provided in annual China Population Statistics Yearbook, which doesn’t provide the TFR, but provides age-specific fertility rates based on population sample surveys. The “Published births” are from annual Statistical communiqué of the People’s Republic of China National Economic and Social Development. With the “TFR in Yearbook” and base-year population, including age and sex structure, we obtained “Birth estimate” by population projection. Then, we calculated the “Estimated TFR” by Estimated TFR = TFR in Yearbook*Published births/Birth estimate

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