Fig. 5

A comparison of pandemic severity for different policies across three considered variants (ancestral: blue; Delta: green; Omicron: red) and two census years (solid line: 2021; dashed line: 2016). The severity of each variant is measured by cases per million (top row). The change in incidence (bottom row) is calculated as the difference of incidence cases per million between two census years. Each column compares the impact of three variants for one intervention policy: a Policy 1; b Policy 4; and c Policy 5. See Fig. 2 for a detailed description of the considered intervention policies. Coloured shaded areas around solid lines (in bottom row) show standard deviation. Each profile (solid and dashed lines) corresponds to one intervention policy and is computed as the average over 100 runs