Table 6 Model parameterisation for the three considered variants of concern (i.e., ancestral, Delta, and Omicron) adopted by AMTraC-19
Model parameters | Ancestral | Delta | Omicron | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\kappa\) | 2.75 | 5.3 | 23 | Global transmission scalar |
\(T_{inc}\), mean | 5 (\(\mu\)=1.609 \(\sigma\)=0.00001) | 4.4 (\(\mu\)=1.396 \(\sigma\)=0.413) | 3 (\(\mu\)=1.013 \(\sigma\)=0.413) | Incubation period (log-normal) |
\(T_{rec}\), mean and range | 12 [12,12] | 10.5 [7, 14] | 9 [7,11] | Recovery period, mean and range (uniform) |
\(T_{lat}\), fixed | 2 | 0 | 0 | Latent period |
\(\alpha _{asymp}\) | 0.3 | Asymptomatic transmission scalar | ||
\(\sigma _a\) | 0.67 | Probability of symptoms (age > 18) | ||
\(\sigma _c\) | 0.268 | Probability of symptoms (age \(\le\) 18) | ||
\(\pi _{symp}\) | 0.1 | Daily case detection probability (symptomatic) | ||
\(\pi _{asymp}\) | 0.01 | Daily case detection probability (asymptomatic) | ||
\(R_0\), mean and 95% CI | 2.77 [2.73,2.83] | 5.97 [5.93, 6.00] | 19.56 [19.12, 19.65] | Basic reproductive number |
\(T_{gen}\), mean and 95% CI | 7.62 [7.53, 7.70] | 6.88 [6.81, 6.94] | 5.42 [5.38, 5.44] | Generation/serial interval |