Enabling the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner

Janssen, Fanny; Van Hemelrijck, Wanda; Kagenaar, Eva; Sizer, Alison

doi:10.1186/s12963-024-00324-2

Population Health Metrics

Table 2 Effect—compared to the baseline—of the different adjustments at the aggregate level on the number of personyears (PY) and deaths, and the final fully adjusted numbers, for those aged 30 and older, by educational attainment group and period, England and Wales, 1972–2017

From: Enabling the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner

	Educational attainment
Period and adjustment	Low educated		Middle educated		High educated		Total*
	PY	Deaths	PY	Deaths	PY	Deaths	PY	Deaths
1972–1981
Baseline numbers	2,401,860	46,773	221,422	1,676	93,808	787	2,868,427	59,305
Redistribution missings	140,400	9,730	7,652	224	3,286	114	151,338	10,069
Trend break 1981	− 11,829	− 91	11,829	91	0	0	0	0
Emigration	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alignment national data	− 93,183	− 2,559	− 6,061	− 88	− 2,573	− 42	− 101,818	− 2,688
Fully adjusted numbers	2,437,247	53,854	234,842	1,903	94,520	860	2,766,608	56,617
1982–1991
Baseline numbers	2,638,435	55,343	149,255	1,179	171,166	1,274	2,959,721	57,824
Redistribution missings	759	27	47	0	59	0	865	27
Trend break 1981	− 161,129	− 1,227	161,129	1,227	0	0	0	0
Emigration	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alignment national data	− 59,204	− 1,726	− 3,452	− 67	− 1,394	− 34	− 64,050	− 1,827
Fully adjusted numbers	2,418,861	52,417	306,978	2,339	169,832	1,240	2,895,671	55,997
1992–2001
Baseline numbers	2,610,425	53,205	225,213	1,847	243,174	1,560	3,090,970	56,946
Redistribution missings	10,380	312	799	12	979	10	12,157	334
Trend break 1981	− 155,787	− 1,001	155,787	1,001	0	0	0	0
Emigration	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alignment national data	19,059	− 2,382	11,816	− 102	9,680	− 58	40,555	− 2,542
Fully adjusted numbers	2,484,077	50,134	393,615	2,757	253,834	1,512	3,131,525	54,404
2002–2011
Baseline numbers	2,107,572	42,210	547,093	5,146	520,908	2,709	3,194,054	52,093
Redistribution missings	15,767	1,869	1,436	94	1,277	65	18,480	2,028
Trend break 1981	− 6,762	− 320	6,762	320	0	0	0	0
Emigration	− 8,610	− 65	− 5,626	− 20	− 6,678	− 12	− 20,915	− 97
Alignment national data	123,558	− 1,886	35,925	− 151	57,086	− 49	216,569	− 2,086
Fully adjusted numbers	2,231,525	41,808	585,590	5,388	572,593	2,714	3,389,708	49,910
2012–2017
Baseline numbers	1,136,186	22,057	627,001	6,956	495,251	2,219	2,259,368	31,245
Redistribution missings	407	10	257	0	267	0	931	10
Trend break 1981	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Emigration	− 67,586	− 493	− 44,163	− 159	− 52,419	− 84	− 164,169	− 736
Alignment national data	27,081	− 105	23,035	30	29,722	63	79,837	− 12
Fully adjusted numbers	1,096,087	21,469	606,130	6,827	472,820	2,198	2,175,037	30,494
1972–2017
Redistribution missings	167,712	11,948	10,191	330	5,868	189	18,3771	12,467
Trend break 1981	− 335,507	− 2,638	335,507	2,638	0	0	0	0
Emigration	− 76,197	− 558	− 49,789	− 179	− 59,097	− 95	− 185,083	− 833

Source data: ONS-LS & HMD. *Total is the total population including the missings for our baseline data and the sum of the unrounded numbers for low, middle and high educated in the other cases

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