Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: a stratified cluster survey

Table 4 Earthquake mortality projections*

*Direct extrapolation to the exposed population*
	2009 population³⁰	Point estimate	Low estimate	High estimate
Survey rate (deaths per 1,000)	--	24.0	20.4	28.0
Metropolitan Port-au-Prince mortality	2,457,807	58,987	50,139	68,819
All affected areas mortality	3,091,236	74,190	63,061	86,555
*Extrapolation by damage level*
*Survey mortality rates by residence damage Level (deaths per 1,000, 95% CI)*
building destruction level category for pre-earthquake residence (respondent reported based on the MTMPC survey) [31]	Deaths/total exposed	Point estimate	Low estimate	High estimate
Green	11/531	20.7	10.4	36.8
Yellow	35/3216	10.9	7.6	15.1
Green and yellow (mild to moderate damage)	46/2847	16.2	11.9	21.5
Red (significant damage/destroyed)	107/2775	38.6	31.7	46.4
*Significantly damaged or destroyed residences*		N	Total	Percent
MTMPC Building Survey		77,674	382,256	20.3%
Remote-sensing damage assessment [29]
Metropolitan Port-au-Prince		47,903	241,791	19.8%
All affected areas		59,073	299,257	19.7%
*Estimated number of deaths by residential destruction level*
	Population estimate**	Point estimate	Low estimate	High estimate
Metropolitan Port-au-Prince
Mild to moderate damage	1,966,246	31,853	23,398	42,274
Significant damage/destroyed	491,561	18,954	15,587	22,813
Total		50,807	38,986	65,088
All affected areas
Mild to moderate damage	2,472,989	40,062	29,429	53,169
Significant damage/destroyed	618,247	23,839	19,605	28,693
Total		63,901	49,033	81,862

*The direct extrapolation approach is similar to the method used by Kolbe et al., while the extrapolation by damage level approach is similar to the method used by Schwartz and incorporates damage levels of residences. For all rates, the survey-determined point estimate and upper and lower bounds for confidence intervals are applied to the estimated population.
**Calculated by multiplying the 2009 population figures by 20.0% (proportion of residences significantly damaged or destroyed) and 80% (residences not significantly damaged or destroyed).

ISSN: 1478-7954